Language:English
AD Ceuta FC v Celta Fortuna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Prediction 45.65%2.19fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -4.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.20%45.69%45.63%47.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.982.002.0854.95%50.44%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Celta Fortuna (Visit)
Prediction 27.20%3.68fair odd
EV +0.650%
Edge +0.176%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.31%27.17%27.13%28.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.403.7031.25%29.26%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.629%
Kelly -0.871%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.21%27.14%27.24%28.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.333.6032.26%29.77%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 45.65%; Celta Fortuna (Visit): 27.20%; Draw: 27.15%. For Celta Fortuna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.650%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -10.07%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV +0.650%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.34%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -10.07%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV +0.650%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.34%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -10.07%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV +0.650%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.34%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -10.07%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV +0.650%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.34%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.80%EV -5.05%E -2.43%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -0.710%E -0.195%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.10%EV -7.97%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -5.51%E -2.66%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.37%EV -0.982%E -0.270%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.44%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.11%EV -12.35%E -6.43%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.11%EV -12.35%E -6.43%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.11%EV -12.35%E -6.43%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.11%EV -12.35%E -6.43%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.39%EV -8.25%E -4.10%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -3.70%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -7.15%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 11:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.13%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 08:43 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.13%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 06:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 14:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -6.88%E -3.37%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-02 13:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -6.88%E -3.37%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-02 13:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -6.88%E -3.37%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-02 14:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -7.79%E -3.86%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-01 15:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.27%EV -14.18%E -7.54%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.27%EV -14.18%E -7.54%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.27%EV -14.18%E -7.54%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.80%EV -6.97%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.36%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 16:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -5.05%E -2.43%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.27%E -0.629%K -0.871%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 07:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.42%E -3.13%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.27%E -0.629%K -0.871%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 23:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.79%E -3.86%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.79%E -3.86%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 04:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 04:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.34%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-03 02:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.27%EV -8.25%E -4.10%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-03 12:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 46.94%EV -16.92%E -9.30%K -20.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.50%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.56%EV -15.84%E -5.11%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.42%E -3.13%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-01 14:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-03 03:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 07:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.98%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-03 07:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-03 02:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-03 16:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 14:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-01 14:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-03 02:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.42%EV -13.72%E -7.26%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-03 16:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -8.70%E -4.35%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 08:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.45%EV -9.62%E -4.86%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-01 14:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-03 02:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-01 06:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -10.53%E -5.37%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.16% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.56% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.56% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.93% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |