Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia v Rayo Vallecano

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 17:00 UTC

Final: Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia (Local)

Prediction 42.62%2.35fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.02%42.62%42.58%43.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.202.3047.62%45.17%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rayo Vallecano (Visit)

Prediction 26.05%3.84fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.720%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.73%26.06%26.06%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.583.553.9231.25%27.94%28.17%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.34%3.19fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.601%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.05%31.32%31.36%32.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1535.71%33.28%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia (Local): 42.62%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 26.05%; Draw: 31.34%. For Rayo Vallecano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.48%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV +2.10%E +0.536%K +0.720%G +0.015%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.44%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%EV +1.58%E +0.405%K +0.545%G +0.009%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-14 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +0.279%E +0.072%K +0.098%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 16:56
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +0.279%E +0.072%K +0.098%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 16:56
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.87%EV -3.26%E -1.43%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.54%EV -0.763%E -0.200%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.59%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-14 16:46
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.38%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.81%EV -2.07%E -0.549%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:56
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 16:55
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-14 16:45
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 16:45
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -1.29%E -0.410%K -0.601%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-14 16:05
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.41%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:56
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.40%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:30
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:45
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 16:45
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.16%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:56
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.37%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.37%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.43%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 16:56
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.55%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.19%EV -1.92%E -0.613%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:54
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:10
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:35
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:35
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:45
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 16:55
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 16:56
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.54%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.08%EV -6.93%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:56
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:56
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 16:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 16:56
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:40
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:41
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 15:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:55
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-14 16:56
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 16:25
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 16:55
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.24%EV -7.95%E -3.68%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 16:41
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 16:55
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.21%EV -9.65%E -4.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.71%EV -12.74%E -3.80%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.75%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -10.50%E -5.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -16.65%E -5.20%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -12.26%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-14 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.82%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.81%-0.2%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%1.0%2026-05-14 16:51
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.1%2026-05-14 16:11