L’École des cotes

Valencia v Rayo Vallecano

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-14 17:00 UTC

Score final : Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Valencia (Local)

Prévision 42.62%2.35cote équitable
EV -1.98%
Avantage -0.860%
Kelly -1.52%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.02%42.62%42.58%43.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.212.202.3047.62%45.17%45.45%43.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Rayo Vallecano (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.05%3.84cote équitable
EV +2.10%
Avantage +0.536%
Kelly +0.720%
Croissance +0.015%

avec la cote maximale 3.92

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.73%26.06%26.06%27.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.583.553.9231.25%27.94%28.17%25.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.34%3.19cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.410%
Kelly -0.601%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.05%31.32%31.36%32.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.003.003.1535.71%33.28%33.33%31.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Marathon Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 43.48%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV +2.10%E +0.536%K +0.720%G +0.015%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:55
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.44%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%EV +1.58%E +0.405%K +0.545%G +0.009%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-14 16:54
LowVig.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +0.279%E +0.072%K +0.098%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 16:56
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +0.279%E +0.072%K +0.098%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 16:56
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 42.87%EV -3.26%E -1.43%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.54%EV -0.763%E -0.200%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.59%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-14 16:46
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.38%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.81%EV -2.07%E -0.549%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:56
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 16:55
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-14 16:45
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 16:45
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 16:55
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -1.29%E -0.410%K -0.601%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-14 16:05
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.41%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:56
Bovada2.23I 44.84%NM 42.40%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:54
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:30
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:45
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 16:45
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 16:45
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.16%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:56
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 42.37%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 42.37%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Codere (IT)2.24I 44.64%NM 42.43%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 16:56
Betclic (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.55%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.19%EV -1.92%E -0.613%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:54
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:10
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:35
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:35
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:45
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:55
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 16:55
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 16:56
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.54%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.08%EV -6.93%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:56
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:56
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 16:25
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 16:54
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:55
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 16:56
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:41
LeoVegas (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:40
Unibet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:41
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 15:55
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:55
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-14 16:56
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 16:25
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:45
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 16:55
BetRivers2.16I 46.30%NM 42.24%EV -7.95%E -3.68%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 16:41
PMU (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 16:55
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 42.21%EV -9.65%E -4.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.71%EV -12.74%E -3.80%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.75%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -10.50%E -5.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -16.65%E -5.20%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -12.26%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-14 16:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.82%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.81%-0.2%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%1.0%2026-05-14 16:51
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.1%2026-05-14 16:11