La escuela de los momios

Valencia v Rayo Vallecano

Inicio: 2026-05-14 17:00 UTC

Final: Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Valencia (Local)

Predicción 42.62%2.35momio equitativo
EV -1.98%
Ventaja -0.860%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.02%42.62%42.58%43.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.212.202.3047.62%45.17%45.45%43.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rayo Vallecano (Visitante)

Predicción 26.05%3.84momio equitativo
EV +2.10%
Ventaja +0.536%
Kelly +0.720%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.73%26.06%26.06%27.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.583.553.9231.25%27.94%28.17%25.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.34%3.19momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.410%
Kelly -0.601%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.05%31.32%31.36%32.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.003.003.1535.71%33.28%33.33%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 43.48%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV +2.10%E +0.536%K +0.720%G +0.015%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:55
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.44%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%EV +1.58%E +0.405%K +0.545%G +0.009%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-14 16:54
LowVig.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +0.279%E +0.072%K +0.098%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 16:56
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +0.279%E +0.072%K +0.098%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 16:56
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 42.87%EV -3.26%E -1.43%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.54%EV -0.763%E -0.200%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.59%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-14 16:46
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.38%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.81%EV -2.07%E -0.549%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:56
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 16:55
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-14 16:45
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 16:45
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.33%E -0.620%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 16:55
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -1.29%E -0.410%K -0.601%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-14 16:05
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.41%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:56
Bovada2.23I 44.84%NM 42.40%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:54
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:30
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:45
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 16:45
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -3.63%E -0.981%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 16:45
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.16%EV -1.98%E -0.860%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 16:56
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 42.37%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 42.37%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Codere (IT)2.24I 44.64%NM 42.43%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 16:56
Betclic (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.55%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.19%EV -1.92%E -0.613%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:54
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:11
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:10
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:35
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.83%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-14 16:35
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:40
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 16:41
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:45
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 16:55
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 16:55
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 16:56
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.54%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.08%EV -6.93%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:56
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:56
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.84%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 16:25
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 16:54
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:55
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 16:56
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:41
LeoVegas (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:40
Unibet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -7.52%E -3.46%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 16:41
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -2.86%E -0.922%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 15:55
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 16:55
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-14 16:56
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.24%E -2.84%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.99%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 16:25
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 16:45
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 16:55
BetRivers2.16I 46.30%NM 42.24%EV -7.95%E -3.68%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -7.56%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 16:41
PMU (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.37%E -3.89%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 16:55
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 42.21%EV -9.65%E -4.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.71%EV -12.74%E -3.80%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.75%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -10.50%E -5.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -16.65%E -5.20%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -12.26%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-14 16:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.82%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.81%-0.2%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-05-14 16:56
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%1.0%2026-05-14 16:51
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.1%2026-05-14 16:11