Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 14:15 UTC

Final: Valencia 0–2 Atlético Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia (Local)

Prediction 55.56%1.80fair odd
EV -0.540%
Edge -0.302%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.58%55.59%55.48%56.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7961.73%58.83%58.82%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 20.15%4.96fair odd
EV +2.76%
Edge +0.541%
Kelly +0.673%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%20.10%20.21%21.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.704.605.1022.73%21.30%21.74%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.29%4.12fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.456%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%24.31%24.30%27.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.863.904.0631.25%25.90%25.64%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia (Local): 55.56%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 20.15%; Draw: 24.29%. For Atlético Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.96. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.76%E +0.541%K +0.673%G +0.019%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.34%EV -3.34%E -0.839%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 14:06
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 14:11
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 14:04
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.40%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.48%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.40%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.48%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 13:50
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.38%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.36%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-02 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58%EV -2.21%E -1.25%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.86%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.86%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.15%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.19%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.89%EV -2.08%E -0.427%K -0.538%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.92%EV -1.88%E -0.466%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 14:00
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.87%EV -1.65%E -0.933%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.23%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.90%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 14:00
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:06
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.05%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.38%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 13:55
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.48%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:00
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 13:55
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:51
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:51
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -7.76%E -4.68%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 13:40
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 13:51
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 13:55
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 14:10
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 14:06
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.19%EV -8.87%E -5.41%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.58%EV -9.99%E -6.16%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -22.28%E -6.96%K -10.13%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-02 14:10
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.20%EV -0.540%E -0.302%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.90%EV -10.74%E -2.42%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.90%EV -1.40%E -0.344%K -0.456%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 14:06
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -11.35%E -2.58%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.22%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%0.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 56.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-05-02 14:11
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-05-02 13:25