L’École des cotes

Valencia v Atlético Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-02 14:15 UTC

Score final : Valencia 0–2 Atlético Madrid

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Valencia (Local)

Prévision 55.56%1.80cote équitable
EV -0.540%
Avantage -0.302%
Kelly -0.683%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.79

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.58%55.59%55.48%56.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.701.701.7961.73%58.83%58.82%55.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Atlético Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.15%4.96cote équitable
EV +2.76%
Avantage +0.541%
Kelly +0.673%
Croissance +0.019%

avec la cote maximale 5.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.96%20.10%20.21%21.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.404.704.605.1022.73%21.30%21.74%19.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.29%4.12cote équitable
EV -1.40%
Avantage -0.344%
Kelly -0.456%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.06

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.33%24.31%24.30%27.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.863.904.0631.25%25.90%25.64%24.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.76%E +0.541%K +0.673%G +0.019%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.34%EV -3.34%E -0.839%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 14:06
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 14:11
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 14:04
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 13:45
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.40%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.48%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 13:55
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.40%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.48%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 13:50
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 56.38%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.36%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-02 14:09
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 14:00
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58%EV -2.21%E -1.25%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.86%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.86%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.15%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.19%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.89%EV -2.08%E -0.427%K -0.538%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.92%EV -1.88%E -0.466%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 14:00
Coolbet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.87%EV -1.65%E -0.933%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.23%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.90%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 14:00
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Codere (IT)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:06
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.05%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.38%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 13:55
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 55.48%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:00
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:01
PMU (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 13:55
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 14:00
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:51
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:51
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -7.76%E -4.68%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 13:40
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 13:51
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:10
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 13:55
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 14:10
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 13:55
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 14:00
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 14:06
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 14:09
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 14:10
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 13:20
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.19%EV -8.87%E -5.41%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:40
LiveScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Virgin Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.58%EV -9.99%E -6.16%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -22.28%E -6.96%K -10.13%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-02 14:10
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.20%EV -0.540%E -0.302%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.90%EV -10.74%E -2.42%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.90%EV -1.40%E -0.344%K -0.456%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 14:06
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -11.35%E -2.58%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.22%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%0.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 56.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-05-02 14:11
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-05-02 13:25