Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Valencia v Atlético Madrid

Inicio: 2026-05-02 14:15 UTC

Final: Valencia 0–2 Atlético Madrid

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Valencia (Local)

Predicción 55.56%1.80momio equitativo
EV -0.540%
Ventaja -0.302%
Kelly -0.683%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.58%55.59%55.48%56.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7961.73%58.83%58.82%55.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 20.15%4.96momio equitativo
EV +2.76%
Ventaja +0.541%
Kelly +0.673%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.96%20.10%20.21%21.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.704.605.1022.73%21.30%21.74%19.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.29%4.12momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.344%
Kelly -0.456%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.33%24.31%24.30%27.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.863.904.0631.25%25.90%25.64%24.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Valencia (Local): 55.56%; Atlético Madrid (Visitante): 20.15%; Empate: 24.29%. Para Atlético Madrid (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.96. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.76%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.76%E +0.541%K +0.673%G +0.019%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.34%EV -3.34%E -0.839%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 14:06
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 14:11
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 14:04
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +0.743%E +0.149%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.40%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.48%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.40%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.48%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 13:50
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.38%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.36%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-02 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -0.264%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58%EV -2.21%E -1.25%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.86%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.86%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.15%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV -1.27%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.19%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.89%EV -2.08%E -0.427%K -0.538%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.92%EV -1.88%E -0.466%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 14:00
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.87%EV -1.65%E -0.933%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.23%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.90%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 14:00
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:06
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.29%E -0.685%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 14:10
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -4.29%E -0.904%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.05%EV -3.32%E -1.91%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.38%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 13:55
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.48%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:00
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11%EV -6.10%E -3.61%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -5.30%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 13:55
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.98%E -2.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:51
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -4.43%E -2.58%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:51
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -7.76%E -4.68%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 13:40
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 13:51
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.14%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -6.65%E -3.96%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -6.50%E -1.69%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 13:55
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.32%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 14:10
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.85%E -0.713%K -0.951%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 14:06
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.54%E -3.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.71%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.19%EV -8.87%E -5.41%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -4.07%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.21%E -4.32%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.32%E -5.04%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.92%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.58%EV -9.99%E -6.16%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -9.33%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -22.28%E -6.96%K -10.13%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-02 14:10
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.20%EV -0.540%E -0.302%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.90%EV -10.74%E -2.42%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.90%EV -1.40%E -0.344%K -0.456%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 14:06
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -3.87%E -2.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -11.35%E -2.58%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.28%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 14:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.22%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%0.5%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-05-02 14:10
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 56.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-05-02 14:11
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-05-02 13:25