Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia v Alavés

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 20:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia (Local)

Prediction 45.59%2.19fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.50%45.56%45.57%47.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.1650.00%47.93%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alavés (Visit)

Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd
EV -0.008%
Edge -0.002%
Kelly -0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.90%23.70%23.61%25.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.943.954.2428.57%25.37%25.32%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.83%3.24fair odd
EV +0.201%
Edge +0.062%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.99%30.74%30.82%31.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.053.2536.36%32.86%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia (Local): 45.59%; Alavés (Visit): 23.58%; Draw: 30.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.201%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV +0.201%E +0.062%K +0.089%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 20:00
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -1.34%E -0.419%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -7.92%E -3.92%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -12.74%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -1.34%E -0.419%K -0.609%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.50%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.86%EV -3.19%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 19:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.73%EV -3.50%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.42%EV -2.45%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.42%EV -2.13%E -0.513%K -0.676%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.16%EV -3.81%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 19:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.36%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -4.12%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.36%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -4.12%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00
Coolbet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.95%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.74%EV -3.55%E -0.867%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.32%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 19:59
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.79%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.90%EV -0.008%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.09%EV -1.99%E -0.926%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.27%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 19:59
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.27%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 20:00
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 19:59
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.49%EV -8.37%E -4.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 19:59
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 19:59
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 19:59
Bovada🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -4.73%E -2.26%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -4.49%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.13%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 19:59
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.18%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 19:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 19:59
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 19:59
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 20:00
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 20:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 19:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 19:59
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
Bally Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 20:00
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 20:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 19:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -7.92%E -3.92%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 19:59
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 19:59
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.74%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.50%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-08 20:00
BetUS🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.98%EV -8.43%E -2.84%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 19:59
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.07%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.67%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -5.18%E -2.49%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -5.18%E -2.49%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 20:00
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.90%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 20:00
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.06%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.91%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 19:59
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 19:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 19:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -17.46%E -4.99%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -15.21%E -5.53%K -8.69%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-08 19:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-03-08 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%0.5%2026-03-08 20:00
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%0.6%2026-03-08 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%0.6%2026-03-08 20:00
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 45.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.82%1.4%2026-03-08 20:00
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 45.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.08%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00