La escuela de los momios

Valencia v Alavés

Inicio: 2026-03-08 20:02 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Valencia (Local)

Predicción 45.59%2.19momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.710%
Kelly -1.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.50%45.56%45.57%47.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.092.102.1650.00%47.93%47.62%46.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alavés (Visitante)

Predicción 23.58%4.24momio equitativo
EV -0.008%
Ventaja -0.002%
Kelly -0.002%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.90%23.70%23.61%25.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.943.954.2428.57%25.37%25.32%23.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.83%3.24momio equitativo
EV +0.201%
Ventaja +0.062%
Kelly +0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.99%30.74%30.82%31.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.043.053.2536.36%32.86%32.79%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV +0.201%E +0.062%K +0.089%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 20:00
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -1.34%E -0.419%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -7.92%E -3.92%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -12.74%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -1.34%E -0.419%K -0.609%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 20:00
Marathon Bet2.13I 46.95%NM 45.50%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.86%EV -3.19%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 19:59
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.73%EV -3.50%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Pinnacle2.14I 46.73%NM 45.42%EV -2.45%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.42%EV -2.13%E -0.513%K -0.676%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.16%EV -3.81%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 19:59
LowVig.ag2.13I 46.95%NM 45.36%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -4.12%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 20:00
BetOnline.ag2.13I 46.95%NM 45.36%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -4.12%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00
Svenska Spel2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00
ATG (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00
Coolbet2.16I 46.30%NM 44.95%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.74%EV -3.55%E -0.867%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.32%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 19:59
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.79%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.90%EV -0.008%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 45.09%EV -1.99%E -0.926%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.27%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 20:00
Codere (IT)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 19:59
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 46.27%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 20:00
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 19:59
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 20:00
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (FR)2.01I 49.75%NM 46.49%EV -8.37%E -4.17%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 19:59
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 19:59
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 19:59
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 19:59
Bovada2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -4.73%E -2.26%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -4.49%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.13%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 19:59
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 45.18%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 19:59
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 19:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 19:59
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.97%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 19:59
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 20:00
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 20:00
Unibet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 20:00
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 19:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 19:59
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
Bally Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:00
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -3.31%E -0.807%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 20:00
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 20:00
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 20:00
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -10.38%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 20:00
Parions Sport (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 19:59
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -7.92%E -3.92%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 19:59
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 19:59
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 45.74%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.50%EV -7.51%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-08 20:00
BetUS2.16I 46.30%NM 43.97%EV -1.53%E -0.710%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.98%EV -8.43%E -2.84%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 19:59
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 44.07%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.67%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 19:50
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -5.18%E -2.49%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 20:00
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -5.18%E -2.49%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 20:00
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 44.90%EV -6.55%E -3.19%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 20:00
PlayUp2.10I 47.62%NM 44.06%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.91%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 19:59
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 19:59
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 19:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -17.46%E -4.99%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -15.21%E -5.53%K -8.69%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-08 19:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-03-08 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%0.5%2026-03-08 20:00
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%0.6%2026-03-08 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%0.6%2026-03-08 20:00
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 45.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.82%1.4%2026-03-08 20:00
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 45.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.08%2.9%2026-03-08 20:00