Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-16 19:00 — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (8 in analysis)

Option 1: Sevilla (Local)

Odds

2.0548.78%Min

2.2744.13%Mean

2.3043.48%Median

2.4141.49%Max

Consensus probabilities

40.21%2.487Min

41.93%2.385Max

40.87%2.447Mean

40.71%2.456Median

40.75%2.454IQM

40.89%2.445Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.41 under the IQM model: 40.75%

EV -1.79%Edge -0.741%Kelly -1.27%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Rayo Vallecano (Visit)

Odds

2.8035.71%Min

3.1331.95%Mean

3.1531.75%Median

3.3330.03%Max

Consensus probabilities

28.58%3.499Min

30.09%3.324Max

29.32%3.410Mean

29.40%3.402Median

29.40%3.401IQM

29.35%3.407Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.33 under the IQM model: 29.40%

EV -2.09%Edge -0.626%Kelly -0.895%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

2.8535.09%Min

3.1132.14%Mean

3.1032.26%Median

3.3330.03%Max

Consensus probabilities

28.59%3.498Min

30.42%3.287Max

29.80%3.355Mean

29.89%3.346Median

29.84%3.351IQM

29.75%3.361Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.33 under the IQM model: 29.84%

EV -0.622%Edge -0.187%Kelly -0.267%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Sevilla (Local) ▼	Rayo Vallecano (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.41I 41.49% NM 40.86%EV -1.79% E -0.741% K -1.27% G +0.000%	3.33I 30.03% NM 29.57%EV -2.09% E -0.626% K -0.895% G +0.000%	3.33I 30.03% NM 29.57%EV -0.622% E -0.187% K -0.267% G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-07-04 03:09
Marathon Bet	2.38I 42.02% NM 40.80%EV -3.01% E -1.26% K -2.18% G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49% NM 29.60%EV -3.56% E -1.08% K -1.56% G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49% NM 29.60%EV -2.11% E -0.644% K -0.927% G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-07-04 03:03
Codere (IT)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.69%EV -4.23% E -1.80% K -3.13% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 29.42%EV -4.44% E -1.37% K -1.97% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.88%EV -4.50% E -1.41% K -2.05% G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-03 08:24
SportsBet	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.40%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.75%EV -5.91% E -1.85% K -2.69% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.85%EV -1.52% E -0.460% K -0.660% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-04 05:10
betfred_uk	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.21%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.62%EV -5.91% E -1.85% K -2.69% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 29.17%EV -3.01% E -0.926% K -1.34% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 05:09
Betr (AU)	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.03%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.49%EV -5.91% E -1.85% K -2.69% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.49%EV -4.50% E -1.41% K -2.05% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-01 20:50
Tipico (DE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.00%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.58%EV -2.97% E -0.899% K -1.29% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.42%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-01 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.45%EV -6.27% E -2.73% K -4.82% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.54%EV -7.38% E -2.34% K -3.43% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.01%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-03 02:20
FanDuel	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.93%EV -8.31% E -3.69% K -6.64% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.48%EV -5.91% E -1.85% K -2.69% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.59%EV -1.52% E -0.460% K -0.660% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-04 05:10
Sky Bet	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.35%EV -8.31% E -3.69% K -6.64% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 30.02%EV -8.85% E -2.85% K -4.21% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.63%EV -3.01% E -0.926% K -1.34% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-04 05:09
Unibet (UK)	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.79%EV -8.31% E -3.69% K -6.64% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.61%EV -8.85% E -2.85% K -4.21% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.61%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-02 11:04
Winamax (DE)	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.78%EV -8.31% E -3.69% K -6.64% G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79% NM 30.09%EV -10.32% E -3.38% K -5.03% G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75% NM 29.13%EV -5.99% E -1.90% K -2.79% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-02 11:04
LeoVegas	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.59%EV -8.31% E -3.69% K -6.64% G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79% NM 29.95%EV -10.32% E -3.38% K -5.03% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.46%EV -7.49% E -2.41% K -3.56% G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-07-02 11:04
Bet Victor	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.39%EV -8.31% E -3.69% K -6.64% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.32%EV -8.85% E -2.85% K -4.21% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 30.29%EV -10.47% E -3.49% K -5.23% G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-07-02 16:05
LiveScore Bet	2.23I 44.84% NM 40.21%EV -9.12% E -4.09% K -7.42% G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79% NM 29.40%EV -10.32% E -3.38% K -5.03% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 30.39%EV -11.96% E -4.05% K -6.13% G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet	2.23I 44.84% NM 40.21%EV -9.12% E -4.09% K -7.42% G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79% NM 29.40%EV -10.32% E -3.38% K -5.03% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 30.39%EV -11.96% E -4.05% K -6.13% G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-07-02 22:19
Paddy Power	2.20I 45.45% NM 41.72%EV -10.34% E -4.70% K -8.62% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.60%EV -8.85% E -2.85% K -4.21% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.68%EV -4.50% E -1.41% K -2.05% G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-04 05:10
BoyleSports	2.20I 45.45% NM 40.93%EV -10.34% E -4.70% K -8.62% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.05%EV -8.85% E -2.85% K -4.21% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 30.02%EV -10.47% E -3.49% K -5.23% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-07-05 11:35
Betclic (FR)	2.15I 46.51% NM 40.81%EV -12.38% E -5.76% K -10.77% G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56% NM 29.44%EV -12.38% E -4.15% K -6.25% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 29.74%EV -11.96% E -4.05% K -6.13% G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-07-03 08:25
Unibet (FR)	2.10I 47.62% NM 41.67%EV -14.42% E -6.87% K -13.11% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 29.17%EV -11.79% E -3.93% K -5.89% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 29.17%EV -10.47% E -3.49% K -5.23% G +0.000%	14.3%	2026-07-03 08:25
NetBet (FR)	2.07I 48.31% NM 40.98%EV -15.64% E -7.56% K -14.62% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 29.25%EV -14.73% E -5.08% K -7.75% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 29.77%EV -14.95% E -5.24% K -8.08% G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-07-04 10:20
Winamax (FR)	2.05I 48.78% NM 40.79%EV -16.46% E -8.03% K -15.67% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 29.87%EV -17.67% E -6.31% K -9.82% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 29.34%EV -14.95% E -5.24% K -8.08% G +0.000%	19.6%	2026-07-03 07:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Sevilla (Local)	Rayo Vallecano (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.34I 42.74%	3.20I 31.25%	3.05I 32.79%	6.8%	2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.34I 42.74%	3.20I 31.25%	3.05I 32.79%	6.8%	2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.34I 42.74%	2.84I 35.21%	2.46I 40.65%	18.6%	2026-07-05 10:10