The School of Odds

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-15 19:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

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Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Prediction 42.23%2.37fair odd
EV -0.339%
Edge -0.144%
Kelly -0.249%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.21%42.28%42.14%43.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.222.3649%45%45%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Rayo Vallecano (Visit)

Prediction 28.37%3.52fair odd
EV +0.716%
Edge +0.202%
Kelly +0.281%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.21%28.36%28.43%29.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.253.253.5533%31%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -0.922%
Edge -0.274%
Kelly -0.389%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.53%29.36%29.43%30.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.103.3734%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.51%EV -6.25%E -2.82%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV +0.716%E +0.202%K +0.281%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -2.98%E -0.903%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-22 15:39
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.51%EV -6.25%E -2.82%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV +0.716%E +0.202%K +0.281%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -2.98%E -0.903%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-22 20:49
Pinnacle2.22I 45.05%NM 42.94%EV -6.25%E -2.82%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -2.12%E -0.615%K -0.866%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.42%EV -4.74%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 19:40
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -2.98%E -0.903%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 11:45
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -2.98%E -0.903%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 11:44
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 11:44
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 11:45
Bovada2.21I 45.25%NM 42.72%EV -6.67%E -3.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 19:39
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-25 09:44
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -2.98%E -0.903%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 11:45
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 21:45
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.54%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 22:30
1xBet2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%EV -0.339%E -0.144%K -0.249%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 29.05%EV -3.82%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 29.22%EV -0.922%E -0.274%K -0.389%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-06 07:10
Codere (IT)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.79%EV -3.72%E -1.63%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -4.96%E -1.48%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 14:35
Marathon Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.78%EV -2.03%E -0.874%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -2.39%E -0.720%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-06 07:10
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 17:05
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 17:04
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 05:20
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 16:25
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-17 11:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-17 11:45
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 19:35
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-13 11:58
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.38%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 11:45
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -3.72%E -1.63%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.80%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 13:49
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -3.72%E -1.63%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.80%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.80%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-06 17:00
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.80%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-06 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.80%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-06 16:59
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.80%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-22 13:49
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -4.98%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-14 21:04
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 16:35
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 09:03
betano_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 09:05
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -7.94%E -3.64%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-03 02:20
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 17:30
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -5.92%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 16:35
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-22 13:50
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.11%EV -10.47%E -4.94%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -10.63%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.56%EV -11.21%E -3.71%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 14:34
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.05%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.86%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-17 16:34
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.43%E -6.55%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.05%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-06 16:55
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -5.83%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -13.47%E -4.42%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -13.27%E -4.50%K -6.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -5.83%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -13.47%E -4.42%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -13.27%E -4.50%K -6.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-02 22:19
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 42.09%EV -12.59%E -6.08%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.57%EV -13.47%E -4.42%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.34%EV -12.68%E -4.27%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-22 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%9.4%2026-07-25 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.46I 68.49%NM 41.70%1.55I 64.52%NM 39.28%3.20I 31.25%NM 19.02%64.3%2026-07-25 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 41.70%1.55I 64.52%NM 39.28%3.20I 31.25%NM 19.02%64.3%2026-07-25 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 41.16%1.50I 66.67%NM 40.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 18.78%66.4%2026-07-25 09:50