The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v Villarreal

2026-10-10 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 75.37%1.33fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -15.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.29%75.47%75.42%77.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.231.231.2785.47%81.03%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 10.05%9.95fair odd
EV +15.62%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.232%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.18%9.83%10.05%11.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.539.5011.5013.33%10.49%10.53%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.57%6.86fair odd
EV +9.00%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 7.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.13%14.70%14.53%16.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.446.507.4817.54%15.53%15.38%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Real Madrid (Local): 75.37%; Villarreal (Visit): 10.05%; Draw: 14.57%. For Villarreal (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.95. 10 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.50, producing a positive expected value of +15.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.41%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +15.62%E +1.36%K +1.49%G +0.232%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -16.21%E -2.82%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.30%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +15.62%E +1.36%K +1.49%G +0.232%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -16.94%E -2.97%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 16:30
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.94%EV -5.03%E -3.99%K -19.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93%EV +10.59%E +0.963%K +1.06%G +0.112%7.48I 13.37%NM 13.13%EV +9.00%E +1.20%K +1.39%G +0.125%1.8%2026-09-17 16:35
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +10.59%E +0.963%K +1.06%G +0.112%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV +2.00%E +0.286%K +0.333%G +0.007%5.3%2026-09-17 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV +5.56%E +0.530%K +0.586%G +0.033%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-17 12:45
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-17 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-17 12:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-17 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-17 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 12:45
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 12:45
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 13:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 17:20
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 17:19
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000%9.37I 10.67%NM 10.05%EV -5.80%E -0.619%K -0.693%G +0.000%7.02I 14.25%NM 13.41%EV +2.29%E +0.327%K +0.381%G +0.009%6.2%2026-09-17 16:40
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.10%EV -6.54%E -5.27%K -27.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -6.74%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-17 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-17 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-17 12:45
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-17 12:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-17 12:45
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.72%EV -8.80%E -7.27%K -41.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 15:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.92%EV -11.81%E -10.10%K -69.48%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.96%EV -11.53%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.11%EV -15.48%E -2.67%K -3.23%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-17 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.76%EV -10.30%E -8.66%K -54.23%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.17%EV -12.03%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.08%EV -14.03%E -2.38%K -2.86%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-17 16:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.12%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -14.54%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.12%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -14.54%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -14.54%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -12.57%E -2.10%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-17 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 73.29%EV -11.06%E -9.37%K -61.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.53%EV -24.60%E -3.28%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.17%EV -16.94%E -2.97%K -3.60%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-17 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.18I 84.75%NM 72.78%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.01%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.20%16.4%2026-09-17 16:35