Idioma:Español
Real Madrid v Villarreal
Resultado del partido
Real Madrid (Local)
Predicción 75.37%1.33momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -3.37%
Kelly -15.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.29%75.47%75.42%77.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.171.231.231.2785.47%81.02%81.30%78.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Villarreal (Visitante)
Predicción 10.05%9.95momio equitativo
EV +15.62%
Ventaja +1.36%
Kelly +1.49%
Crecimiento +0.232%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.18%9.83%10.05%11.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.509.549.5011.5013.33%10.48%10.53%8.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 14.57%6.86momio equitativo
EV +9.00%
Ventaja +1.20%
Kelly +1.39%
Crecimiento +0.125%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.48
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.13%14.70%14.53%16.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.706.466.507.4817.54%15.48%15.38%13.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Real Madrid (Local): 75.37%; Villarreal (Visitante): 10.05%; Empate: 14.57%. Para Villarreal (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 9.95. 10 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 11.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +15.62%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.41%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +15.62%E +1.36%K +1.49%G +0.232% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -16.21%E -2.82%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-17 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.30%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +15.62%E +1.36%K +1.49%G +0.232% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -16.94%E -2.97%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.94%EV -5.03%E -3.99%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93%EV +10.59%E +0.963%K +1.06%G +0.112% | 7.48I 13.37%NM 13.13%EV +9.00%E +1.20%K +1.39%G +0.125% | 1.8% | 2026-09-17 16:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +10.59%E +0.963%K +1.06%G +0.112% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV +2.00%E +0.286%K +0.333%G +0.007% | 5.3% | 2026-09-17 14:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV +5.56%E +0.530%K +0.586%G +0.033% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-17 14:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.04%EV -4.27%E -3.37%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66%EV +0.537%E +0.054%K +0.060%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -1.64%E -0.243%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.67%EV -6.54%E -5.27%K -27.23%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.75%EV -1.98%E -0.203%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.00%E +0.286%K +0.333%G +0.007% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.78%E -4.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-17 13:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-17 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-17 17:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000% | 9.37I 10.67%NM 10.05%EV -5.80%E -0.619%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 7.02I 14.25%NM 13.41%EV +2.29%E +0.327%K +0.381%G +0.009% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.10%EV -6.54%E -5.27%K -27.23%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -6.74%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.99%EV -7.29%E -5.93%K -31.69%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -8.93%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.72%EV -8.80%E -7.27%K -41.89%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 15:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.92%EV -11.81%E -10.10%K -69.48%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 9.96%EV -11.53%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.11%EV -15.48%E -2.67%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-17 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 74.76%EV -10.30%E -8.66%K -54.23%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.17%EV -12.03%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.08%EV -14.03%E -2.38%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-17 16:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.12%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -14.54%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 16:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.12%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -14.54%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.28%E -0.813%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 14:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -8.04%E -6.59%K -36.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -14.54%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -12.57%E -2.10%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-17 12:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.29%EV -11.06%E -9.37%K -61.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.53%EV -24.60%E -3.28%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.17%EV -16.94%E -2.97%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-09-17 16:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (1)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 72.78% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.01% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.20% | 16.4% | 2026-09-17 16:35 |