Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prediction 35.64%2.81fair odd
EV -0.925%
Edge -0.333%
Kelly -0.520%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.23%35.79%35.67%39.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.622.612.7841.32%38.14%38.31%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 35.42%2.82fair odd
EV +8.04%
Edge +2.63%
Kelly +3.92%
Growth +0.315%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.26%35.32%35.43%36.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.662.673.0541.67%37.55%37.52%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.94%3.46fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.369%
Kelly +0.516%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.89%28.89%28.91%30.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.253.5034.72%30.68%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano (Local): 35.64%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 35.42%; Draw: 28.94%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -13.76%E -5.68%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV +8.04%E +2.63%K +3.92%G +0.315%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-24 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
1xBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 35.47%EV -0.925%E -0.333%K -0.520%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 35.35%EV -1.17%E -0.421%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 29.18%EV -2.18%E -0.646%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.4%2026-04-24 01:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.48%EV -2.71%E -0.992%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.35%EV -2.94%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.17%EV -3.92%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 01:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.65%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.65%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 22:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-24 03:05
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.07%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.40%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.53%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 23:24
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:29
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:40
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:40
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:39
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:39
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 01:30
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -4.21%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 01:40
Bovada🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 01:29
BetUS🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 01:25
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.07%E -1.89%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 23:24
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.99%E -0.725%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-24 03:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 23:09
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:05
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.89%EV -6.52%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 22:40
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.51%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 23:04
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 22:39
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -1.99%E -0.725%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.08%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 23:04
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 23:03
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 03:04
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:49
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:05
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 23:24
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -11.62%E -4.68%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.84%E -2.81%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -11.62%E -4.68%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.84%E -2.81%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.82%EV -8.97%E -3.49%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 00:25
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV +1.29%E +0.369%K +0.516%G +0.007%6.2%2026-04-23 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 21:45
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 21:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:04
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 23:29
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 22:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.23%EV -6.27%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -14.99%E -6.24%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.35%EV -16.65%E -5.78%K -8.86%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.84I 35.21%NM 35.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-04-24 02:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-04-24 01:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-04-24 01:15
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.63%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 34.85%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-04-24 02:40
Smarkets2.80I 35.71%NM 34.93%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%2.2%2026-04-24 01:15