La escuela de los momios

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-04-26 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Predicción 35.64%2.81momio equitativo
EV -0.925%
Ventaja -0.333%
Kelly -0.520%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.23%35.79%35.67%39.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.422.622.612.7841.32%38.14%38.31%35.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 35.42%2.82momio equitativo
EV +8.04%
Ventaja +2.63%
Kelly +3.92%
Crecimiento +0.315%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.26%35.32%35.43%36.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.662.673.0541.67%37.55%37.52%32.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.94%3.46momio equitativo
EV +1.29%
Ventaja +0.369%
Kelly +0.516%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.89%28.89%28.91%30.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.263.253.5034.72%30.68%30.77%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -13.76%E -5.68%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV +8.04%E +2.63%K +3.92%G +0.315%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-24 00:25
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:29
Svenska Spel2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
ATG (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
1xBet2.78I 35.97%NM 35.47%EV -0.925%E -0.333%K -0.520%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 35.35%EV -1.17%E -0.421%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 29.18%EV -2.18%E -0.646%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.4%2026-04-24 01:40
Marathon Bet2.73I 36.63%NM 35.48%EV -2.71%E -0.992%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.35%EV -2.94%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.17%EV -3.92%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 01:30
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.65%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 22:55
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.65%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 22:55
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-24 03:05
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 36.07%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.40%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.53%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 23:24
Casumo2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:29
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Bally Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:40
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:40
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:39
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:39
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 01:30
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -4.21%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 01:40
Bovada2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 01:29
BetUS2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 01:25
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.07%E -1.89%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 23:24
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.99%E -0.725%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:59
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-24 03:03
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 23:09
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:05
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 23:05
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.89%EV -6.52%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:04
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 22:40
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.51%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 23:04
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 22:39
SportsBet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -1.99%E -0.725%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.08%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 23:04
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 23:03
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 22:59
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 23:00
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 03:04
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:49
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 22:55
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:05
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 23:24
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:04
Virgin Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -11.62%E -4.68%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.84%E -2.81%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:29
LiveScore Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -11.62%E -4.68%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.84%E -2.81%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:30
NetBet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.82%EV -8.97%E -3.49%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 00:25
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV +1.29%E +0.369%K +0.516%G +0.007%6.2%2026-04-23 21:45
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 21:45
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 21:49
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:04
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 23:29
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 22:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 33.23%EV -6.27%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -14.99%E -6.24%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.35%EV -16.65%E -5.78%K -8.86%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 23:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.84I 35.21%NM 35.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-04-24 02:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-04-24 01:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-04-24 01:15
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.63%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 34.85%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-04-24 02:40
Smarkets2.80I 35.71%NM 34.93%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%2.2%2026-04-24 01:15