L’École des cotes

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-26 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prévision 35.64%2.81cote équitable
EV -0.925%
Avantage -0.333%
Kelly -0.520%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.78

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.23%35.79%35.67%39.40%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.422.622.612.7841.32%38.14%38.31%35.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Sociedad (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.42%2.82cote équitable
EV +8.04%
Avantage +2.63%
Kelly +3.92%
Croissance +0.315%

avec la cote maximale 3.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.26%35.32%35.43%36.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.662.673.0541.67%37.55%37.52%32.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.94%3.46cote équitable
EV +1.29%
Avantage +0.369%
Kelly +0.516%
Croissance +0.007%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.89%28.89%28.91%30.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.263.253.5034.72%30.68%30.77%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -13.76%E -5.68%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV +8.04%E +2.63%K +3.92%G +0.315%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-24 00:25
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:29
Svenska Spel2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
ATG (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.69%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.72%EV -0.819%E -0.293%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.59%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-24 01:30
1xBet2.78I 35.97%NM 35.47%EV -0.925%E -0.333%K -0.520%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 35.35%EV -1.17%E -0.421%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 29.18%EV -2.18%E -0.646%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.4%2026-04-24 01:40
Marathon Bet2.73I 36.63%NM 35.48%EV -2.71%E -0.992%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.35%EV -2.94%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.17%EV -3.92%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 01:30
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.65%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 22:55
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.06%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.56%EV -3.65%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 22:55
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-24 03:05
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 36.07%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.40%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.53%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 23:24
Casumo2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:29
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:39
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Bally Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:40
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:40
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:39
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:39
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 01:30
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -4.21%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 01:40
Bovada2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 01:29
BetUS2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.38%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 01:25
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.07%E -1.89%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 23:24
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.99%E -0.725%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:59
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-24 03:03
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 23:09
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:05
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 23:05
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.89%EV -6.52%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:04
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 22:40
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.51%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 23:04
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 22:39
SportsBet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -1.99%E -0.725%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.08%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 23:04
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -3.78%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 23:03
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 22:59
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 23:00
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 03:04
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.63%E -2.53%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:49
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 22:55
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:05
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 23:24
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:04
Virgin Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -11.62%E -4.68%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.84%E -2.81%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:29
LiveScore Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -11.62%E -4.68%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.84%E -2.81%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:30
NetBet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.82%EV -8.97%E -3.49%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 00:25
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV +1.29%E +0.369%K +0.516%G +0.007%6.2%2026-04-23 21:45
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -1.60%E -0.472%K -0.668%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 21:45
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -3.05%E -0.911%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 21:49
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:04
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.12%E -3.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.39%E -2.31%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 23:29
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -5.95%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 22:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 33.23%EV -6.27%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -14.99%E -6.24%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.35%EV -16.65%E -5.78%K -8.86%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 23:04
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.84I 35.21%NM 35.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-04-24 02:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-04-24 01:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-04-24 01:15
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.63%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 34.85%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-04-24 02:40
Smarkets2.80I 35.71%NM 34.93%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%2.2%2026-04-24 01:15