Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano v Oviedo

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prediction 54.39%1.84fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.36%54.44%54.39%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.741.7959.88%57.68%57.47%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oviedo (Visit)

Prediction 18.87%5.30fair odd
EV +5.65%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.36%18.82%18.94%20.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.025.005.6022.22%19.91%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.390%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.86%26.74%26.67%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.503.503.7032.26%28.54%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano (Local): 54.39%; Oviedo (Visit): 18.87%; Draw: 26.74%. For Oviedo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.25%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.36%EV +5.65%E +1.01%K +1.23%G +0.069%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-04 17:44
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.82%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 18.07%EV +1.31%E +0.244%K +0.300%G +0.004%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.11%EV -4.26%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.50%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.41%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.10%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-04 17:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.78%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.29%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.93%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.78%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.29%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.93%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.06%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.76%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-04 17:45
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.78%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.98%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-04 17:55
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -0.953%E -0.182%K -0.224%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 17:44
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.66%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.61%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.73%EV -3.19%E -0.882%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.54%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -1.05%E -0.285%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.54%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -1.05%E -0.285%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.95%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.49%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.56%EV -3.19%E -0.882%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.88%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:44
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:44
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.53%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.82%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.66%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-04 17:49
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-04 17:44
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 17:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 17:55
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.36%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.84%EV -4.73%E -0.936%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 17:43
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -8.08%E -4.78%K -11.71%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.52%EV -4.73%E -0.936%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.13%EV -4.26%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 17:49
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.18%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.18%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.64%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-04 16:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.12%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 17:50
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 17:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 17:00
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 17:54
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 16:59
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 17:50
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.00%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-04 17:44
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -6.61%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 17:45
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -6.61%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.88%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -7.56%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -2.39%E -0.655%K -0.902%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -7.56%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 17:50
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.75%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.06%EV -8.50%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 17:45
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.18%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.32%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 17:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.44%EV -8.62%E -5.13%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 17:50
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.86%EV -8.08%E -4.78%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.96%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-04 17:50
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 17:25
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 17:24
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -11.33%E -2.41%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 17:49
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.83%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -13.22%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -15.10%E -3.36%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-04 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 55.04%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.37%1.5%2026-03-04 17:55