La escuela de los momios

Rayo Vallecano v Oviedo

Inicio: 2026-03-04 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Predicción 54.39%1.84momio equitativo
EV -2.64%
Ventaja -1.47%
Kelly -3.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.36%54.44%54.39%55.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.731.741.7959.88%57.68%57.47%55.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Oviedo (Visitante)

Predicción 18.87%5.30momio equitativo
EV +5.65%
Ventaja +1.01%
Kelly +1.23%
Crecimiento +0.069%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.36%18.82%18.94%20.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.025.005.6022.22%19.91%20.00%17.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.74%3.74momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.285%
Kelly -0.390%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.86%26.74%26.67%28.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.503.503.7032.26%28.54%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.25%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.36%EV +5.65%E +1.01%K +1.23%G +0.069%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-04 17:44
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.82%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 18.07%EV +1.31%E +0.244%K +0.300%G +0.004%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.11%EV -4.26%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 17:50
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.50%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.41%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.10%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-04 17:44
Unibet (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.78%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.29%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.93%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 17:25
Svenska Spel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.78%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.29%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.93%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 17:30
Unibet (NL)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.06%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.76%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-04 17:45
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.78%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.98%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-04 17:55
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -0.953%E -0.182%K -0.224%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 17:44
Pinnacle1.77I 56.50%NM 54.66%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.61%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.73%EV -3.19%E -0.882%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 17:50
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.54%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -1.05%E -0.285%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 17:00
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.54%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -1.05%E -0.285%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 17:00
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.95%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.49%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.56%EV -3.19%E -0.882%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 17:45
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.88%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:44
Bally Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:44
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -1.90%E -0.365%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 17:45
Betclic (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.53%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.82%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.66%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-04 17:49
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-04 17:44
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 17:45
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -3.78%E -0.742%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 17:55
Bovada1.75I 57.14%NM 54.36%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.84%EV -4.73%E -0.936%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 17:43
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -8.08%E -4.78%K -11.71%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.52%EV -4.73%E -0.936%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.13%EV -4.26%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 17:49
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 54.18%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.18%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.64%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-04 16:59
Codere (IT)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.12%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 17:50
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 17:25
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 17:00
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 17:55
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 17:54
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 16:59
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 17:50
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 17:50
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 55.00%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-04 17:44
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -6.61%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 17:45
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -6.61%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 17:45
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.88%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -7.56%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -2.39%E -0.655%K -0.902%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:50
Parions Sport (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -7.56%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 17:50
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.75%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.06%EV -8.50%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 17:45
BetMGM1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:24
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.18%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 17:50
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.32%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -5.06%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 17:50
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 17:45
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 17:44
NetBet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.44%EV -8.62%E -5.13%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 17:50
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 53.86%EV -8.08%E -4.78%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.96%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-04 17:50
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 17:25
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 17:24
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 17:55
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 17:00
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -11.33%E -2.41%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 17:49
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 52.83%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -13.22%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -15.10%E -3.36%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-04 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-04 17:55
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 55.04%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.37%1.5%2026-03-04 17:55