Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC

Final: Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.74%45.05%44.99%46.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.1850.00%47.88%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Espanyol (Visit)

Prediction 26.26%3.81fair odd
EV +1.10%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.385%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%26.28%26.24%27.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.593.603.8532.26%27.89%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.73%3.48fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.683%
Kelly -0.967%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.55%28.67%28.77%29.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.303.303.4034.72%30.32%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano (Local): 45.01%; Espanyol (Visit): 26.26%; Draw: 28.73%. For Espanyol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.37%EV -3.67%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV +1.10%E +0.285%K +0.385%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.42%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 17:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -0.215%E -0.056%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 17:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.22%EV -2.77%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.73%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-23 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:24
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.86%EV -2.32%E -1.07%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.17%EV -2.32%E -0.622%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.97%EV -3.47%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-23 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.28%EV -3.67%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -2.32%E -0.622%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -2.90%E -0.857%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.91%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.84%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -4.33%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 17:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.91%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.84%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -4.33%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 17:15
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.84%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 10:05
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.07%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.26%EV -3.10%E -0.841%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -2.90%E -0.857%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:49
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:54
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:09
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:05
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:49
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:49
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:50
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:49
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -4.12%E -1.94%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 17:09
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 17:00
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 14:18
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.29%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:37
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:10
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:09
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:00
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:29
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.77%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 17:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.57%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 17:49
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.77%EV -1.87%E -0.860%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 11:15
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 17:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.08%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.26%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 17:04
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -9.08%E -4.49%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 14:34
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:55
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:10
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:09
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:35
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 17:09
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 17:09
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.07%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.07%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:34
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:34
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 12:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -18.60%E -6.00%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -17.26%E -5.99%K -9.18%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-23 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-04-23 17:55
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-04-23 17:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.67%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55