La escuela de los momios

Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol

Inicio: 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC

Final: Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Predicción 45.01%2.22momio equitativo
EV -1.87%
Ventaja -0.860%
Kelly -1.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.74%45.05%44.99%46.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.092.102.1850.00%47.88%47.62%45.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Espanyol (Visitante)

Predicción 26.26%3.81momio equitativo
EV +1.10%
Ventaja +0.285%
Kelly +0.385%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.46%26.28%26.24%27.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.593.603.8532.26%27.89%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.73%3.48momio equitativo
EV -2.32%
Ventaja -0.683%
Kelly -0.967%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.55%28.67%28.77%29.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.303.303.4034.72%30.32%30.30%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.14I 46.73%NM 45.37%EV -3.67%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV +1.10%E +0.285%K +0.385%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.42%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 17:19
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -0.215%E -0.056%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 17:49
ATG (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.22%EV -2.77%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.73%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-23 17:50
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:24
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:49
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.53%E -0.407%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:24
Pinnacle2.17I 46.08%NM 44.86%EV -2.32%E -1.07%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.17%EV -2.32%E -0.622%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.97%EV -3.47%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-23 17:20
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 45.28%EV -3.67%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -2.32%E -0.622%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -2.90%E -0.857%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:54
BetOnline.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.91%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.84%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -4.33%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 17:15
LowVig.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.91%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.84%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -4.33%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 17:15
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.84%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 10:05
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.07%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.26%EV -3.10%E -0.841%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -2.90%E -0.857%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 17:49
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:54
BetUS2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:09
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:05
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:49
Casumo2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:49
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:50
Bally Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:49
TABtouch2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:50
Codere (IT)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -4.12%E -1.94%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 17:09
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 17:00
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 14:18
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 15:14
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.29%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:37
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:00
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:10
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:09
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:00
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:29
BetRivers2.04I 49.02%NM 45.77%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 17:24
PMU (FR)2.04I 49.02%NM 45.57%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 17:49
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.77%EV -1.87%E -0.860%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 11:15
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 16:55
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 17:29
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.08%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.26%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 17:04
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -9.08%E -4.49%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 17:54
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 14:34
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:55
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:10
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:09
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:54
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.32%E -0.683%K -0.967%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:35
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 17:34
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 17:09
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:29
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.09%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.07%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 17:09
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -3.76%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 14:34
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.07%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 17:55
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.07%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 17:54
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:34
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.19%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:34
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.63%E -2.04%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 12:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -18.60%E -6.00%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -17.26%E -5.99%K -9.18%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-23 17:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-04-23 17:55
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-04-23 17:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.67%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55