Language:English
Mallorca v Villarreal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mallorca (Local)
Prediction 38.70%2.58fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -0.850%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.27%38.76%38.63%40.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.402.5543.48%41.36%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Villarreal (Visit)
Prediction 34.10%2.93fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.504%
Kelly -0.771%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.97%34.15%34.14%36.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.762.762.8938.46%36.18%36.23%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.20%3.68fair odd
EV +0.652%
Edge +0.176%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.61%27.08%27.23%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.483.503.7034.72%28.69%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mallorca (Local): 38.70%; Villarreal (Visit): 34.10%; Draw: 27.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.652%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.65%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.09%EV -2.82%E -0.990%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 2.9% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.65%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.09%EV -2.82%E -0.990%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 2.9% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.77%EV -9.06%E -3.85%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -0.708%E -0.194%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 11:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.60%EV -1.32%E -0.517%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 34.06%EV -1.46%E -0.504%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -11.35%E -4.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 11:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -2.82%E -0.990%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%EV -2.88%E -0.808%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-10 11:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.50%EV -2.09%E -0.827%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.06%EV -2.48%E -0.867%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.44%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.60%EV -2.87%E -1.14%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.11%EV -3.16%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -9.06%E -3.85%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.75%EV -10.99%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.64%E -3.64%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-10 11:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.49%EV -2.87%E -1.14%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.90%EV -2.82%E -0.990%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.49%EV -2.87%E -1.14%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.90%EV -2.82%E -0.990%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.36%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.25%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.40%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 11:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.03%E -1.62%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.55%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 11:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 11:43 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 11:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -9.06%E -3.85%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -10.99%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.38%EV -5.55%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 11:42 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -9.83%E -4.22%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -9.83%E -4.22%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -9.83%E -4.22%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.49%EV -4.03%E -1.62%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.85%EV -3.84%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -4.41%E -1.79%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -5.21%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 11:43 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.68%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.78%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 11:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 11:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.23%E -2.27%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.94%E -2.94%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 11:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -10.99%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -10.66%E -4.07%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-10 11:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -10.99%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -11.35%E -4.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -21.65%E -7.52%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.18% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72% | 0.2% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.95% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.95% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.95% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 11:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.13% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 11:45 |