Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo v Sevilla

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 1–0 Sevilla

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prediction 51.12%1.96fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.78%51.12%51.14%53.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.851.9357.80%54.05%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sevilla (Visit)

Prediction 20.72%4.83fair odd
EV -0.128%
Edge -0.027%
Kelly -0.034%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.69%20.79%20.72%22.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.424.504.8225.32%22.61%22.22%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.16%3.55fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.383%
Kelly +0.530%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%28.09%28.14%29.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.6033.33%29.62%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Vigo (Local): 51.12%; Sevilla (Visit): 20.72%; Draw: 28.16%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.34%E -0.694%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%EV +1.38%E +0.383%K +0.530%G +0.007%1.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.34%E -0.694%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%EV +1.38%E +0.383%K +0.530%G +0.007%1.8%2026-05-23 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.34%E -0.694%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%EV +1.38%E +0.383%K +0.530%G +0.007%1.8%2026-05-23 18:49
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.58%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.17%EV -5.10%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.24%EV +0.252%E +0.071%K +0.098%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.35%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.19%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-23 18:49
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.44%E -0.411%K -0.575%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:49
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -1.44%E -0.411%K -0.575%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.64%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -0.543%E -0.113%K -0.143%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-23 18:48
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Bally Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.35%EV -3.38%E -1.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.43%EV -1.58%E -0.332%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.21%EV -3.13%E -0.909%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.02%EV -11.56%E -6.68%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.16%EV -5.72%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.82%EV -3.69%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 18:48
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.58%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.00%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.58%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.00%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:29
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.93%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.02%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.25%EV -4.92%E -2.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:39
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -0.543%E -0.113%K -0.143%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:39
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.46%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.79%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%EV -7.47%E -4.13%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%EV -7.47%E -4.13%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%EV -2.87%E -1.51%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.17%EV -0.128%E -0.027%K -0.034%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.67%EV -4.54%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-23 18:40
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.12%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.61%E -0.556%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 18:39
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.41%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.41%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:29
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -2.61%E -0.556%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 18:39
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.28%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -1.58%E -0.332%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:48
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.55%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.58%E -0.332%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.95%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 18:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -6.96%E -3.83%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:49
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.68%EV -9.01%E -5.06%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.72%EV -10.03%E -5.70%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.83%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-23 18:49
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -17.12%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.77%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -6.96%E -3.83%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -17.12%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.76%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -18.15%E -4.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.78%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -17.12%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -15.52%E -5.17%K -7.76%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.46%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56%1.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-05-23 18:30