La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Sevilla

Inicio: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 1–0 Sevilla

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 51.12%1.96momio equitativo
EV -1.34%
Ventaja -0.694%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.78%51.12%51.14%53.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.851.851.9357.80%54.05%54.05%51.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sevilla (Visitante)

Predicción 20.72%4.83momio equitativo
EV -0.128%
Ventaja -0.027%
Kelly -0.034%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.69%20.79%20.72%22.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.954.424.504.8225.32%22.61%22.22%20.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.16%3.55momio equitativo
EV +1.38%
Ventaja +0.383%
Kelly +0.530%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.82%28.09%28.14%29.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.383.403.6033.33%29.62%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.34%E -0.694%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%EV +1.38%E +0.383%K +0.530%G +0.007%1.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.34%E -0.694%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%EV +1.38%E +0.383%K +0.530%G +0.007%1.8%2026-05-23 18:49
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%EV -1.34%E -0.694%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%EV +1.38%E +0.383%K +0.530%G +0.007%1.8%2026-05-23 18:49
1xBet1.88I 53.19%NM 51.58%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.17%EV -5.10%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.24%EV +0.252%E +0.071%K +0.098%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.35%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.19%EV -0.030%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-23 18:49
BetUS1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.44%E -0.411%K -0.575%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:49
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -1.44%E -0.411%K -0.575%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 51.64%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -0.543%E -0.113%K -0.143%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-23 18:48
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Bally Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.85%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 51.35%EV -3.38%E -1.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.43%EV -1.58%E -0.332%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.21%EV -3.13%E -0.909%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.02%EV -11.56%E -6.68%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.16%EV -5.72%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.82%EV -3.69%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 18:48
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.58%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.00%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:29
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.58%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.00%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:29
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.93%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.02%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 51.25%EV -4.92%E -2.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:39
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -0.543%E -0.113%K -0.143%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:39
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.46%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.79%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -10.90%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Right1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 18:49
LiveScore Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%EV -7.47%E -4.13%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Virgin Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%EV -7.47%E -4.13%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%EV -2.87%E -1.51%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.17%EV -0.128%E -0.027%K -0.034%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.67%EV -4.54%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-23 18:40
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.12%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.61%E -0.556%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 18:39
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.41%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 50.41%EV -3.90%E -2.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.05%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -5.66%E -1.69%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -2.36%E -1.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:29
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -4.41%E -2.36%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -2.61%E -0.556%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 18:39
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 51.28%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -1.58%E -0.332%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:48
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.55%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.58%E -0.332%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.95%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 18:39
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:40
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -6.96%E -3.83%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.69%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:49
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -11.94%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.68%EV -9.01%E -5.06%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.72%EV -10.03%E -5.70%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.83%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-23 18:49
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -6.45%E -3.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -17.12%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.07%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -5.43%E -2.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.76%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.77%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -10.28%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 18:39
PMU (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -6.96%E -3.83%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -17.12%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 49.76%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -18.15%E -4.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -8.48%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.78%EV -7.99%E -4.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -17.12%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -15.52%E -5.17%K -7.76%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.46%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56%1.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-05-23 18:30