Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prediction 31.53%3.17fair odd
EV +2.47%
Edge +0.759%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.64%31.46%31.60%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.2535.71%33.06%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 39.29%2.55fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.74%39.36%39.27%41.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.372.402.5047.62%42.18%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV -0.770%
Edge -0.227%
Kelly -0.321%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.47%29.17%29.13%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.233.203.4034.72%30.95%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Vigo (Local): 31.53%; Real Madrid (Visit): 39.29%; Draw: 29.19%. For Celta Vigo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV -6.50%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 19:30
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.405%G +0.004%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -1.78%E -0.714%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-06 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.35%EV -0.054%E -0.017%K -0.025%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.94%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.35%EV -0.054%E -0.017%K -0.025%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.94%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 19:55
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Bally Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
1xBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.92%EV -1.00%E -0.319%K -0.467%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.64%EV -1.06%E -0.313%K -0.444%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-06 19:55
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 31.09%EV -1.32%E -0.420%K -0.618%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.24%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.67%EV -4.27%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-06 19:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.76%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 19:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.07%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.83%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.10%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.03%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.10%EV -3.36%E -1.36%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.87%EV -6.02%E -1.87%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-06 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 19:30
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.20%EV -12.39%E -5.56%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.55%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.28%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 19:55
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -9.64%E -4.19%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -11.61%E -5.16%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -11.61%E -5.16%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 19:30
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.74%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 19:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -4.93%E -2.04%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 19:30
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 19:30
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.53%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.45%EV -3.36%E -1.36%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.03%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 19:55
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-06 19:40
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:40
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:40
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 19:55
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 19:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:40
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:40
Betsson🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.36%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:41
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.36%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.31%EV -6.89%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -0.770%E -0.227%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 19:36
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -0.770%E -0.227%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:46
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:10
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:11
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:40
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:40
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.50%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 19:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.50%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 19:50
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 19:54
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.64%E -4.19%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -0.770%E -0.227%K -0.321%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 19:50
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 19:45
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 19:40
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.72%E -4.19%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.64%E -4.19%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-06 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -11.72%E -4.19%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -17.50%E -8.33%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -15.95%E -5.54%K -8.48%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-06 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.64%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.21%0.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.64%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.21%0.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-03-06 19:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-03-06 19:50
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-03-06 19:51