La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Real Madrid

Inicio: 2026-03-06 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 31.53%3.17momio equitativo
EV +2.47%
Ventaja +0.759%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.64%31.46%31.60%32.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.023.003.2535.71%33.06%33.33%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 39.29%2.55momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.714%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.74%39.36%39.27%41.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.372.402.5047.62%42.18%41.67%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.19%3.43momio equitativo
EV -0.770%
Ventaja -0.227%
Kelly -0.321%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.47%29.17%29.13%30.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.233.203.4034.72%30.95%31.25%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV -6.50%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet (NL)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 19:30
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV +2.47%E +0.759%K +1.10%G +0.027%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 19:30
Coolbet3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%EV +0.892%E +0.279%K +0.405%G +0.004%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -1.78%E -0.714%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-06 19:50
LowVig.ag3.17I 31.55%NM 30.35%EV -0.054%E -0.017%K -0.025%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.94%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 19:55
BetOnline.ag3.17I 31.55%NM 30.35%EV -0.054%E -0.017%K -0.025%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.94%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 19:55
TABtouch3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Casumo3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Grosvenor3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
Bally Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
betPARX3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -0.685%E -0.217%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -10.43%E -4.57%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:30
1xBet3.14I 31.85%NM 30.92%EV -1.00%E -0.319%K -0.467%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.64%EV -1.06%E -0.313%K -0.444%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-06 19:55
Pinnacle3.13I 31.95%NM 31.09%EV -1.32%E -0.420%K -0.618%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.24%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.67%EV -4.27%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-06 19:45
Parions Sport (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.76%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 19:45
Betclic (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.07%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.83%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.10%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 19:55
Marathon Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 31.03%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.10%EV -3.36%E -1.36%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.87%EV -6.02%E -1.87%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-06 19:50
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 19:30
LeoVegas3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -2.26%E -0.729%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.20%EV -12.39%E -5.56%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 19:30
Unibet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 31.55%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.28%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-06 19:55
BetUS3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -9.64%E -4.19%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 19:20
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -11.61%E -5.16%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 19:30
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -3.84%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -11.61%E -5.16%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 19:30
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.74%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 19:25
Codere (IT)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -4.93%E -2.04%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-06 19:30
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 19:30
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.53%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.45%EV -3.36%E -1.36%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.03%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 19:55
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-06 19:40
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:40
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:40
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 19:55
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 19:55
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:40
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:40
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.36%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:41
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.36%EV -2.57%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:40
NetBet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.31%EV -6.89%E -2.91%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Bet Victor2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -0.770%E -0.227%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 19:36
theScore Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -0.770%E -0.227%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 19:45
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:46
Ladbrokes (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:10
Neds2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:11
Coral2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:40
BetMGM2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:40
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.50%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 19:50
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -6.50%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 19:50
TAB2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 19:54
Fliff2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.57%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.64%E -4.19%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.07%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 19:30
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -0.770%E -0.227%K -0.321%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 19:50
Bet Right2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -2.23%E -0.665%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 19:50
Winamax (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -5.71%E -2.38%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -6.61%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 19:45
PlayUp2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.75%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 19:40
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.72%E -4.19%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.64%E -4.19%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-06 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -11.72%E -4.19%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -17.50%E -8.33%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -15.95%E -5.54%K -8.48%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-06 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.64%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.21%0.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.64%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.21%0.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-03-06 19:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-03-06 19:50
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-03-06 19:51