Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo v Elche CF

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 12:00 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche CF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prediction 55.21%1.81fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.99%55.22%55.17%56.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.701.7662.11%58.66%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elche CF (Visit)

Prediction 20.47%4.89fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.468%
Kelly +0.585%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.02%20.49%20.49%21.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.604.605.0025.00%21.74%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV -0.271%
Edge -0.066%
Kelly -0.087%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.55%24.29%24.34%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.893.904.1030.30%25.71%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Vigo (Local): 55.21%; Elche CF (Visit): 20.47%; Draw: 24.32%. For Elche CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV +2.34%E +0.468%K +0.585%G +0.014%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.48%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV +0.295%E +0.060%K +0.076%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-03 11:01
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.96%EV -0.524%E -0.108%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.31%EV -2.95%E -0.738%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.82%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.35%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.83%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-03 11:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 11:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.37%EV -3.19%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 11:50
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.36%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:25
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.31%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.25%EV -2.16%E -0.452%K -0.572%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.44%EV -3.68%E -0.928%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.28%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -4.41%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 06:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.28%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -4.41%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 06:30
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.06%EV -2.83%E -1.61%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 05:45
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 11:25
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:25
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 11:01
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 11:50
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:46
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.41%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:05
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.05%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -4.82%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:37
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 11:45
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 05:10
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:44
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:50
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:50
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 11:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -8.36%E -5.03%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 11:00
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -9.46%E -5.77%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:45
BetUS🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.90%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -6.87%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.23%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 09:21
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 20:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 09:25
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 09:20
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:10
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.91%E -5.40%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 11:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65%EV -10.01%E -6.14%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:55
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 07:55
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 11:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -11.12%E -6.90%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -11.12%E -6.90%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:45
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 09:29
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 07:55
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 11:41
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -11.99%E -2.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.99%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -18.13%E -4.53%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -19.73%E -5.98%K -8.58%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-03 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.60%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-05-03 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:45
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:45
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.88%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.40%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.2%2026-05-03 11:05