L’École des cotes

Celta Vigo v Elche CF

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-03 12:00 UTC

Score final : Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche CF

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prévision 55.21%1.81cote équitable
EV -2.83%
Avantage -1.61%
Kelly -3.73%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.76

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.99%55.22%55.17%56.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.611.701.701.7662.11%58.66%58.82%56.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Elche CF (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.47%4.89cote équitable
EV +2.34%
Avantage +0.468%
Kelly +0.585%
Croissance +0.014%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.02%20.49%20.49%21.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.604.605.0025.00%21.74%21.74%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.32%4.11cote équitable
EV -0.271%
Avantage -0.066%
Kelly -0.087%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.55%24.29%24.34%26.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.893.904.1030.30%25.71%25.64%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV +2.34%E +0.468%K +0.585%G +0.014%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:54
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.48%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV +0.295%E +0.060%K +0.076%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-03 11:01
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.96%EV -0.524%E -0.108%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.31%EV -2.95%E -0.738%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 11:55
ATG (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.82%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.35%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.83%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-03 11:45
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 11:45
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 11:45
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.37%EV -3.19%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 11:50
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 55.36%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:25
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.31%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.25%EV -2.16%E -0.452%K -0.572%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.44%EV -3.68%E -0.928%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:50
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.28%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -4.41%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 06:30
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.28%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -4.41%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 06:30
Coolbet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.06%EV -2.83%E -1.61%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 05:45
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 11:25
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:25
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 11:01
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 11:50
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:46
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.41%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:05
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 55.05%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -4.82%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:37
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Codere (IT)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 11:45
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 05:10
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 11:00
Betclic (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:44
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:50
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:50
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 11:05
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -8.36%E -5.03%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 11:00
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -9.46%E -5.77%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:45
BetUS1.73I 57.80%NM 54.90%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -6.87%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.23%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 09:21
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 20:14
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 09:25
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 09:20
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 11:00
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:10
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.91%E -5.40%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 11:55
NetBet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65%EV -10.01%E -6.14%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:55
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 07:55
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 07:55
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 11:01
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -11.12%E -6.90%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:45
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -11.12%E -6.90%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:45
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 09:29
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 07:55
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 11:41
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -11.99%E -2.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 51.99%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -18.13%E -4.53%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -19.73%E -5.98%K -8.58%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-03 10:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.60%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-05-03 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:45
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:45
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.88%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.40%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.2%2026-05-03 11:05