La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Elche CF

Inicio: 2026-05-03 12:00 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche CF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 55.21%1.81momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -1.61%
Kelly -3.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.99%55.22%55.17%56.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.611.701.701.7662.11%58.66%58.82%56.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Elche CF (Visitante)

Predicción 20.47%4.89momio equitativo
EV +2.34%
Ventaja +0.468%
Kelly +0.585%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.02%20.49%20.49%21.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.604.605.0025.00%21.74%21.74%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.32%4.11momio equitativo
EV -0.271%
Ventaja -0.066%
Kelly -0.087%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.55%24.29%24.34%26.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.893.904.1030.30%25.71%25.64%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV +2.34%E +0.468%K +0.585%G +0.014%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:54
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.48%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV +0.295%E +0.060%K +0.076%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-03 11:01
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.96%EV -0.524%E -0.108%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.31%EV -2.95%E -0.738%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 11:55
ATG (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.82%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.35%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.83%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-03 11:45
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 11:45
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.271%E -0.066%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 11:45
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.37%EV -3.19%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 11:50
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 55.36%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -1.75%E -0.365%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:25
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.31%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.25%EV -2.16%E -0.452%K -0.572%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.44%EV -3.68%E -0.928%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:50
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.28%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -4.41%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 06:30
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.16%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.28%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -4.41%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 06:30
Coolbet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.06%EV -2.83%E -1.61%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 05:45
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 11:25
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -2.78%E -0.584%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:25
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 11:01
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 11:50
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:45
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:46
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.41%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -3.80%E -0.808%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:05
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 55.05%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.36%EV -4.82%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:37
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Codere (IT)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 11:45
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 05:10
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 11:00
Betclic (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:44
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:50
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:50
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 11:05
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -8.36%E -5.03%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 11:00
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -9.46%E -5.77%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:45
BetUS1.73I 57.80%NM 54.90%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -6.87%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.23%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 09:21
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 20:14
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 09:25
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 09:20
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 11:00
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:10
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.91%E -5.40%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 11:55
NetBet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65%EV -10.01%E -6.14%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -7.89%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.92%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:55
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 07:55
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 07:55
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 11:01
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -11.12%E -6.90%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:45
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -11.12%E -6.90%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.94%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:45
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 09:29
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 07:55
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.37%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -8.78%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 11:41
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.25%E -4.32%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -11.99%E -2.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 51.99%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -18.13%E -4.53%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -19.73%E -5.98%K -8.58%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-03 10:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.60%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-05-03 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:45
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-05-03 11:45
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.88%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.40%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.2%2026-05-03 11:05