Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona v Villarreal

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 68.45%1.46fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -6.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.56%68.37%68.54%70.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.60%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 14.52%6.89fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +0.490%
Kelly +0.570%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 7.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.25%14.62%14.43%16.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.476.507.1318.18%15.46%15.38%14.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.03%5.87fair odd
EV -0.205%
Edge -0.035%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.19%17.01%17.03%19.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.525.505.8623.09%18.12%18.18%17.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 68.45%; Villarreal (Visit): 14.52%; Draw: 17.03%. For Villarreal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.89. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.82%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.61%EV +3.50%E +0.490%K +0.570%G +0.020%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.56%EV -0.205%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.38%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.75%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.89%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 14:55
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.84%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 15:06
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 14:55
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 15:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.56%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.91%EV +0.883%E +0.127%K +0.148%G +0.001%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -0.375%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.56%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.91%EV +0.883%E +0.127%K +0.148%G +0.001%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -0.375%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 14:55
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.157%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 14:55
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.157%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 14:56
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.37%EV -1.29%E -0.190%K -0.223%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.84%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%2.4%2026-02-28 14:56
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.19%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.41%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-28 15:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.75%EV -8.27%E -6.17%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.40%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.58%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.74%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.51%EV -2.75%E -0.410%K -0.482%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.05%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-28 14:56
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.67%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.25%EV -3.47%E -0.522%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.08%EV -5.48%E -0.988%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.70%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.57%EV -4.20%E -0.636%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.73%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:56
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.03%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.95%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 15:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.91%EV -6.22%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 14:55
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 14:55
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:06
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:56
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.59%E -5.62%K -21.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 15:05
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.59%E -5.62%K -21.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.15%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 14:55
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.70%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.24%EV -9.74%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 14:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.98%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.34%EV -7.10%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 14:56
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.77%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -7.10%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-28 14:56
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.72%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.26%EV -8.55%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.02%EV -3.78%E -0.669%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.72%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.51%EV -8.55%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 16.77%EV -7.19%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.60%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.37%EV -10.00%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.29%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 14:56
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 10:50
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.33%EV -6.22%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 15:04
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.32%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.04%EV -20.16%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.64%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.56%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.61%EV -20.16%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.83%EV -26.26%E -6.06%K -7.89%G +0.000%16.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%0.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%0.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.45%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.42%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12%0.7%2026-02-28 15:05
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.15%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48%1.1%2026-02-28 15:06
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.36%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.2%2026-02-28 15:05