L’École des cotes

Barcelona v Villarreal

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-28 15:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Prévision 68.45%1.46cote équitable
EV -2.79%
Avantage -1.97%
Kelly -6.65%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.56%68.37%68.54%70.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.60%72.46%70.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Villarreal (Visiteur)

Prévision 14.52%6.89cote équitable
EV +3.50%
Avantage +0.490%
Kelly +0.570%
Croissance +0.020%

avec la cote maximale 7.13

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.25%14.62%14.43%16.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.506.476.507.1318.18%15.46%15.38%14.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.03%5.87cote équitable
EV -0.205%
Avantage -0.035%
Kelly -0.042%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.86

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.19%17.01%17.03%19.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.335.525.505.8623.09%18.12%18.18%17.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 69.82%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.61%EV +3.50%E +0.490%K +0.570%G +0.020%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.56%EV -0.205%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 69.38%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.75%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Betclic (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
theScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.89%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 14:55
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.84%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 15:06
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 14:55
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 15:05
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.56%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.91%EV +0.883%E +0.127%K +0.148%G +0.001%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -0.375%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 14:55
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.56%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.91%EV +0.883%E +0.127%K +0.148%G +0.001%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -0.375%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 14:55
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.157%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 14:55
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.157%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 14:56
Pinnacle1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.37%EV -1.29%E -0.190%K -0.223%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.84%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%2.4%2026-02-28 14:56
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.19%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.41%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-28 15:04
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.75%EV -8.27%E -6.17%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.40%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 14:55
PMU (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.58%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.74%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Bet Right1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Coolbet1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.51%EV -2.75%E -0.410%K -0.482%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.05%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-28 14:56
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 68.67%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.25%EV -3.47%E -0.522%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.08%EV -5.48%E -0.988%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.70%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.57%EV -4.20%E -0.636%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.73%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:55
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:56
DraftKings1.40I 71.43%NM 68.03%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.95%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Bovada1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 15:01
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.91%EV -6.22%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 14:55
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 14:55
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:06
Unibet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:56
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:56
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.59%E -5.62%K -21.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 15:05
BetRivers1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.59%E -5.62%K -21.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.15%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 14:55
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 68.70%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.24%EV -9.74%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 14:55
LiveScore Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 68.98%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.34%EV -7.10%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 14:56
Virgin Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 68.77%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -7.10%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-28 14:56
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.72%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.26%EV -8.55%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.02%EV -3.78%E -0.669%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Fliff1.33I 75.19%NM 68.72%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.51%EV -8.55%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 16.77%EV -7.19%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Codere (IT)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.60%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.37%EV -10.00%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 14:55
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.29%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 14:56
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 10:50
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Winamax (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.33%EV -6.22%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 15:04
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 66.32%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.04%EV -20.16%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.64%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.56%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.61%EV -20.16%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.83%EV -26.26%E -6.06%K -7.89%G +0.000%16.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%0.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%0.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.45%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.42%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12%0.7%2026-02-28 15:05
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.15%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48%1.1%2026-02-28 15:06
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.36%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.2%2026-02-28 15:05