La escuela de los momios

Barcelona v Villarreal

Inicio: 2026-02-28 15:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Predicción 68.45%1.46momio equitativo
EV -2.79%
Ventaja -1.97%
Kelly -6.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.56%68.37%68.54%70.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.60%72.46%70.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Villarreal (Visitante)

Predicción 14.52%6.89momio equitativo
EV +3.50%
Ventaja +0.490%
Kelly +0.570%
Crecimiento +0.020%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.25%14.62%14.43%16.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.476.507.1318.18%15.46%15.38%14.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 17.03%5.87momio equitativo
EV -0.205%
Ventaja -0.035%
Kelly -0.042%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.19%17.01%17.03%19.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.335.525.505.8623.09%18.12%18.18%17.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 69.82%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.61%EV +3.50%E +0.490%K +0.570%G +0.020%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.56%EV -0.205%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 69.38%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.75%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Betclic (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
theScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.89%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 14:55
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.84%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 15:06
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 14:55
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +1.61%E +0.230%K +0.268%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 15:05
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.56%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.91%EV +0.883%E +0.127%K +0.148%G +0.001%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -0.375%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 14:55
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.56%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.91%EV +0.883%E +0.127%K +0.148%G +0.001%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -0.375%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 14:55
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.157%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 14:55
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.81%EV +0.157%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 14:56
Pinnacle1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.37%EV -1.29%E -0.190%K -0.223%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.84%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%2.4%2026-02-28 14:56
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.19%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.41%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-28 15:04
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.75%EV -8.27%E -6.17%K -24.33%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.40%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 14:55
PMU (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.58%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.74%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Bet Right1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -2.02%E -0.299%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Coolbet1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.51%EV -2.75%E -0.410%K -0.482%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.05%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-28 14:56
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 68.67%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.25%EV -3.47%E -0.522%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.08%EV -5.48%E -0.988%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.70%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.57%EV -4.20%E -0.636%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.73%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:55
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.49%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 14:56
DraftKings1.40I 71.43%NM 68.03%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.95%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Bovada1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 15:01
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.91%EV -6.22%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -2.93%E -0.514%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 14:55
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 14:55
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:06
Unibet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:56
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:56
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.59%E -5.62%K -21.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 15:05
BetRivers1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.59%E -5.62%K -21.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.15%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 14:55
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 68.70%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.65%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.24%EV -9.74%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 14:55
LiveScore Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 68.98%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.34%EV -7.10%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 14:56
Virgin Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 68.77%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -7.10%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -8.04%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-28 14:56
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.72%EV -2.79%E -1.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.26%EV -8.55%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.02%EV -3.78%E -0.669%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Fliff1.33I 75.19%NM 68.72%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.51%EV -8.55%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 16.77%EV -7.19%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Codere (IT)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.60%EV -3.48%E -2.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.37%EV -10.00%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 14:55
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.08%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.85%E -3.49%K -12.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.29%EV -1.23%E -0.212%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 14:56
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 10:50
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.91%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 67.05%EV -4.16%E -2.97%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.63%E -0.827%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Winamax (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.33%EV -6.22%E -4.54%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -15.81%E -2.73%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 15:04
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 66.32%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.04%EV -20.16%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.64%EV -14.85%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.56%EV -8.96%E -6.73%K -27.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.61%EV -20.16%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.83%EV -26.26%E -6.06%K -7.89%G +0.000%16.5%2026-02-28 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%0.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%0.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.45%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.42%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12%0.7%2026-02-28 15:05
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.15%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48%1.1%2026-02-28 15:06
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.36%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.2%2026-02-28 15:05