Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona v Real Betis

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 19:15 UTC

Final: Barcelona 3–1 Real Betis

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 71.23%1.40fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.66%71.19%71.26%72.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.331.3880.00%75.62%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Betis (Visit)

Prediction 12.45%8.03fair odd
EV +5.86%
Edge +0.689%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.40%12.45%12.45%14.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.467.508.5015.38%13.40%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.32%6.13fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.321%
Kelly +0.382%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.23%16.36%16.30%19.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.695.756.2522.22%17.58%17.39%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 71.23%; Real Betis (Visit): 12.45%; Draw: 16.32%. For Real Betis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.03. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +5.86%E +0.689%K +0.781%G +0.046%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.29%EV -2.89%E -0.486%K -0.584%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 19:10
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.14%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.38I 11.93%NM 11.53%EV +4.36%E +0.521%K +0.591%G +0.026%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.33%EV -3.38%E -0.571%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 19:00
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.94%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.45%EV +3.37%E +0.406%K +0.461%G +0.016%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 19:05
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.94%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.45%EV +3.37%E +0.406%K +0.461%G +0.016%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.50%EV +2.74%E +0.333%K +0.378%G +0.010%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.08%EV -3.71%E -0.628%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 18:46
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.94%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.14%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.92%EV -0.442%E -0.072%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.51%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV +2.01%E +0.321%K +0.382%G +0.008%3.7%2026-05-16 02:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.51%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV +2.01%E +0.321%K +0.382%G +0.008%3.7%2026-05-16 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 19:00
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 18:53
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.71%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 18:54
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 21:25
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.17%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:50
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.69%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.15%EV -2.24%E -0.285%K -0.327%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%EV -3.71%E -0.628%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.38%EV -3.13%E -2.30%K -8.70%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.45%EV -2.86%E -0.367%K -0.421%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.18%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.66%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.11%EV -2.86%E -0.367%K -0.421%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.23%EV +1.19%E +0.192%K +0.229%G +0.003%5.9%2026-05-17 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -3.48%E -0.449%K -0.516%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 15:04
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.84%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.51%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 19:00
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 18:55
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 19:00
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 18:55
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.79%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.67%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 19:05
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 19:10
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 19:05
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 17:25
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-15 19:00
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -14.31%E -2.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.36%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -6.97%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 18:25
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 18:30
Fliff🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.07%EV -8.12%E -6.29%K -28.00%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.56%EV -9.09%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -8.60%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 18:35
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.68%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -9.71%E -1.34%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 17:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.99%EV -3.13%E -2.30%K -8.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 19:09
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 18:58
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 19:00
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 19:00
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 19:10
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.21%EV -8.83%E -6.90%K -31.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -13.50%E -2.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -10.97%E -8.77%K -43.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -26.56%E -5.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%16.5%2026-05-17 19:10
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.31%EV -1.71%E -1.24%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.06%EV -14.07%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.62%EV +1.35%E +0.218%K +0.260%G +0.004%3.1%2026-05-17 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.79%EV -15.31%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -8.60%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.79%EV -15.31%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -8.60%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.23%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV -15.94%E -2.36%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -6.97%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.55%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -15.94%E -2.36%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -13.50%E -2.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.08%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -19.05%E -2.93%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.19%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.05%E -2.93%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -13.50%E -2.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 19:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.15%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.5%2026-05-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.15%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.5%2026-05-17 19:10
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 73.15%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.5%2026-05-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.96%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-17 19:11
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.96%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-17 19:06
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 72.57%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%2.1%2026-05-17 19:10