La escuela de los momios

Barcelona v Real Betis

Inicio: 2026-05-17 19:15 UTC

Final: Barcelona 3–1 Real Betis

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Predicción 71.23%1.40momio equitativo
EV -1.71%
Ventaja -1.24%
Kelly -4.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.66%71.19%71.26%72.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.251.321.331.3880.00%75.62%75.19%72.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Betis (Visitante)

Predicción 12.45%8.03momio equitativo
EV +5.86%
Ventaja +0.689%
Kelly +0.781%
Crecimiento +0.046%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.40%12.45%12.45%14.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.467.508.5015.38%13.40%13.33%11.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 16.32%6.13momio equitativo
EV +2.01%
Ventaja +0.321%
Kelly +0.382%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.23%16.36%16.30%19.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.695.756.2522.22%17.58%17.39%16.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +5.86%E +0.689%K +0.781%G +0.046%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.29%EV -2.89%E -0.486%K -0.584%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 19:10
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 72.14%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.38I 11.93%NM 11.53%EV +4.36%E +0.521%K +0.591%G +0.026%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.33%EV -3.38%E -0.571%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 19:00
NordicBet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.94%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.45%EV +3.37%E +0.406%K +0.461%G +0.016%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 19:05
Betsson1.34I 74.63%NM 70.94%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.45%EV +3.37%E +0.406%K +0.461%G +0.016%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 19:05
Betclic (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.50%EV +2.74%E +0.333%K +0.378%G +0.010%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.08%EV -3.71%E -0.628%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 18:46
Svenska Spel1.35I 74.07%NM 71.94%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.14%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.92%EV -0.442%E -0.072%K -0.087%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 19:10
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.51%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV +2.01%E +0.321%K +0.382%G +0.008%3.7%2026-05-16 02:10
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.51%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.06%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV +2.01%E +0.321%K +0.382%G +0.008%3.7%2026-05-16 02:10
Unibet (NL)1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 19:00
Unibet (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 19:00
ATG (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 19:00
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 18:53
Bovada1.32I 75.76%NM 71.71%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 18:54
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 21:25
TAB1.32I 75.76%NM 71.17%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -0.370%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:50
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 71.69%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.15%EV -2.24%E -0.285%K -0.327%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%EV -3.71%E -0.628%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 18:55
Coolbet1.36I 73.53%NM 71.38%EV -3.13%E -2.30%K -8.70%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.45%EV -2.86%E -0.367%K -0.421%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.18%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.66%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.11%EV -2.86%E -0.367%K -0.421%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.23%EV +1.19%E +0.192%K +0.229%G +0.003%5.9%2026-05-17 19:00
Betr (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -3.48%E -0.449%K -0.516%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 15:04
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 70.84%EV -4.56%E -3.40%K -13.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.51%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 17:25
Grosvenor1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 19:00
Casumo1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 18:55
Bally Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 19:00
betPARX1.33I 75.19%NM 71.09%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 18:55
Betway1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 19:00
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 71.79%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.67%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 19:05
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 19:10
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 19:05
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.07%E -0.346%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:30
Fanatics1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 17:25
theScore Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-15 19:00
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -14.31%E -2.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 19:10
NetBet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.36%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -6.97%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 18:25
Bet Right1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 21:25
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -6.60%E -0.880%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 18:30
Fliff1.29I 77.52%NM 71.07%EV -8.12%E -6.29%K -28.00%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.56%EV -9.09%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -8.60%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 18:35
BetMGM1.33I 75.19%NM 70.68%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -9.71%E -1.34%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 17:25
Codere (IT)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.99%EV -3.13%E -2.30%K -8.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -5.34%E -0.920%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 19:10
Unibet (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 19:09
Coral1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.15%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 19:00
TABtouch1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 18:58
Unibet1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.23%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 19:00
BetRivers1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 19:00
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 19:00
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 19:10
LeoVegas1.28I 78.13%NM 70.21%EV -8.83%E -6.90%K -31.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -13.50%E -2.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -10.97%E -8.77%K -43.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -12.82%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -26.56%E -5.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%16.5%2026-05-17 19:10
1xBet1.38I 72.46%NM 70.31%EV -1.71%E -1.24%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.06%EV -14.07%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.62%EV +1.35%E +0.218%K +0.260%G +0.004%3.1%2026-05-17 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.79%EV -15.31%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -8.60%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.79%EV -15.31%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -8.60%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 70.23%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.60%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV -15.94%E -2.36%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -6.97%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 19:10
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.55%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -15.94%E -2.36%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -13.50%E -2.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 19:00
Unibet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.08%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -19.05%E -2.93%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.19%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.05%E -2.93%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -13.50%E -2.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 19:11
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.15%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.5%2026-05-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.15%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.5%2026-05-17 19:10
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 73.15%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.5%2026-05-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.96%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-17 19:11
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.96%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-05-17 19:06
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 72.57%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%2.1%2026-05-17 19:10