Language:English
Atlético Madrid v Málaga
Head to Head
Atlético Madrid (Local)
Prediction 71.97%1.39fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -10.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.22%71.91%72.03%73.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.301.301.3482.64%77.11%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Málaga (Visit)
Prediction 9.87%10.13fair odd
EV +12.52%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.151%
assuming max odds 11.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.58%9.90%9.85%11.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.7910.0011.4012.50%10.22%10.00%8.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.16%5.51fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.394%
Kelly +0.479%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 5.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.97%18.19%18.12%19.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.145.005.6321.28%19.44%20.00%17.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlético Madrid (Local): 71.97%; Málaga (Visit): 9.87%; Draw: 18.16%. For Málaga (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.13. 12 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.40, producing a positive expected value of +12.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.42%EV -3.56%E -2.65%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 11.40I 8.77%NM 8.63%EV +12.52%E +1.10%K +1.20%G +0.151% | 5.48I 18.25%NM 17.95%EV -0.505%E -0.092%K -0.113%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-08-03 09:15 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.43%EV -4.99%E -3.78%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.62%EV +11.04%E +0.982%K +1.08%G +0.119% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.95%EV -1.96%E -0.363%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 09:09 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.38%EV -4.28%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.87%EV +8.57%E +0.779%K +0.857%G +0.074% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.75%EV -0.142%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.38%EV -4.28%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.87%EV +8.57%E +0.779%K +0.857%G +0.074% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.75%EV -0.142%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.38%EV -4.28%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.87%EV +8.57%E +0.779%K +0.857%G +0.074% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.75%EV -0.142%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.38%EV -4.28%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.87%EV +8.57%E +0.779%K +0.857%G +0.074% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.75%EV -0.142%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| betfred_uk | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +8.57%E +0.779%K +0.857%G +0.074% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.92%EV -5.71%E -4.36%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.88%EV +7.59%E +0.696%K +0.766%G +0.058% | 5.63I 17.76%NM 17.20%EV +2.22%E +0.394%K +0.479%G +0.011% | 3.3% | 2026-07-26 20:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.92%EV -5.71%E -4.36%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.88%EV +7.59%E +0.696%K +0.766%G +0.058% | 5.63I 17.76%NM 17.20%EV +2.22%E +0.394%K +0.479%G +0.011% | 3.3% | 2026-07-26 20:20 |
| BetMGM | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.28%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +3.64%E +0.347%K +0.383%G +0.014% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-03 04:09 |
| Grosvenor | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.98%EV -4.99%E -3.78%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +3.64%E +0.347%K +0.383%G +0.014% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.84%EV -1.96%E -0.363%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +3.64%E +0.347%K +0.383%G +0.014% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 23:24 |
| Coral | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.13%EV -4.28%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.59%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.27%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-03 04:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.71%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -3.77%E -0.712%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-22 14:34 |
| Casumo | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| betPARX | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Bally Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Neds | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 04:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 04:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 04:09 |
| William Hill | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-22 12:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.39%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 10:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-03 09:28 |
| betano_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -1.30%E -0.130%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-03 15:00 |
| Bovada | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.01%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.73%EV -3.76%E -0.386%K -0.430%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.26%EV -0.142%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-02 14:58 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.78%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 9.63I 10.38%NM 9.83%EV -4.95%E -0.514%K -0.573%G +0.000% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 17.39%EV -1.23%E -0.226%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-02 15:00 |
| BetUS | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.56%EV -5.71%E -4.36%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.44%EV -1.05%E -0.193%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-19 00:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-30 04:04 |
| Sky Bet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-22 14:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-22 14:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Unibet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -7.15%E -5.55%K -24.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -13.76%E -2.90%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-26 10:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -10.03%E -8.03%K -40.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -6.23%E -0.656%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-22 14:33 |
| FanDuel | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.27%EV -7.87%E -6.15%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -3.77%E -0.712%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-22 14:34 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -13.76%E -2.90%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-03 15:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.25%EV -7.87%E -6.15%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -11.04%E -2.25%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.25%EV -7.87%E -6.15%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -11.04%E -2.25%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.30%EV -9.31%E -7.39%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.30%EV -9.31%E -7.39%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-29 23:20 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 72.12%EV -12.91%E -10.67%K -61.49%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.70%EV -11.17%E -1.24%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.18%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-03 09:10 |
| Betway | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -16.10%E -1.89%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -4.68%E -0.892%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-30 20:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.43%E -4.95%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -16.10%E -1.89%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-03 09:04 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.22%EV -8.59%E -6.77%K -31.83%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.81%EV -18.57%E -2.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.97%EV -14.67%E -3.12%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-03 09:28 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.58%EV -7.87%E -6.15%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -21.04%E -2.63%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.97%EV -1.96%E -0.363%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-03 09:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.35%EV -7.87%E -6.15%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -21.04%E -2.63%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.23%EV -3.77%E -0.712%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-03 09:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.58% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33% | 3.0% | 2026-08-03 13:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.58% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33% | 3.0% | 2026-08-03 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.58% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33% | 3.0% | 2026-08-03 14:00 |
| Smarkets | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.97% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.75% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.28% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 14:05 |