Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v Málaga

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 19:00 UTC

Final: Atlético Madrid 2–0 Málaga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 65.09%1.54fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.91%65.00%64.99%66.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.451.5071.43%68.73%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Málaga (Visit)

Prediction 14.14%7.07fair odd
EV +6.04%
Edge +0.805%
Kelly +0.929%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.37%14.15%14.30%15.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.786.677.5016.67%14.75%14.98%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.77%4.81fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.506%
Kelly -0.643%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.78%20.85%20.71%22.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.444.504.7025.00%22.53%22.22%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 65.09%; Málaga (Visit): 14.14%; Draw: 20.77%. For Málaga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.07. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.90%EV -2.36%E -1.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV +6.04%E +0.805%K +0.929%G +0.056%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-19 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.90%EV -2.36%E -1.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV +6.04%E +0.805%K +0.929%G +0.056%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-19 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.90%EV -2.36%E -1.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV +6.04%E +0.805%K +0.929%G +0.056%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-19 18:45
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.37%EV -4.97%E -3.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.92%EV +6.04%E +0.805%K +0.929%G +0.056%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.71%EV -2.79%E -0.597%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-19 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.20%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV +6.04%E +0.805%K +0.929%G +0.056%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-19 18:45
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.29%EV -8.87%E -6.34%K -22.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV +6.04%E +0.805%K +0.929%G +0.056%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.33%EV -9.65%E -2.22%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-19 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV +3.21%E +0.440%K +0.510%G +0.016%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -10.69%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 18:55
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV +3.21%E +0.440%K +0.510%G +0.016%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -10.69%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.05%EV -3.01%E -2.02%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.65%EV +0.383%E +0.054%K +0.063%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.30%EV -5.49%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-19 18:29
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.52%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.85%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -2.38%E -0.506%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-19 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.37%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.82%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.81%EV -3.42%E -0.735%K -0.936%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.37%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.82%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.81%EV -3.42%E -0.735%K -0.936%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.69%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 18:30
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.23%EV -4.97%E -3.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 18:29
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-19 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.27%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 18:45
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.27%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 18:45
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.27%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 18:45
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.27%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 18:44
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 18:54
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -7.57%E -5.33%K -18.03%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-19 18:33
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -14.84%E -3.62%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 18:45
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -1.03%E -0.147%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -14.84%E -3.62%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 18:45
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.00%EV -2.36%E -1.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 14.03%EV -1.74%E -0.250%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.97%EV -3.42%E -0.735%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-19 18:55
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.03%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.96%EV -3.15%E -0.460%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.01%EV -5.49%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-19 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.07%EV -7.57%E -5.33%K -18.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -4.57%E -0.676%K -0.794%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -9.65%E -2.22%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -4.57%E -0.676%K -0.794%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -14.84%E -3.62%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 18:44
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -4.57%E -0.676%K -0.794%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -14.84%E -3.62%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.44%EV -6.69%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.93%EV -2.36%E -1.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 18:39
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.54%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.69%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 18:24
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.09%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -7.57%E -1.70%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-19 18:44
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.32%E -2.94%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-19 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 18:45
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.46%E -0.969%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 18:40
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 18:40
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 18:26
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 18:29
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41%EV -5.62%E -3.87%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.57%E -5.33%K -18.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -2.38%E -0.506%K -0.643%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -6.92%E -4.84%K -16.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-19 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.57%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -8.22%E -5.83%K -20.05%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -2.38%E -0.506%K -0.643%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 18:55
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.76%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.91%EV -4.97%E -3.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -16.92%E -4.23%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-19 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.91%EV -4.97%E -3.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -16.92%E -4.23%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-19 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.87%E -6.34%K -22.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -8.10%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -10.06%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-19 18:45
Fliff🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.75%EV -8.22%E -5.83%K -20.05%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.26%EV -9.51%E -1.49%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -9.65%E -2.22%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 18:55
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -3.67%E -2.48%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -15.17%E -2.53%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 18:35
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -6.27%E -4.35%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -15.17%E -2.53%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.06%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.70%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%0.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.70%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%0.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.70%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%0.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.70%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%0.1%2026-08-19 18:55
Smarkets1.51I 66.23%NM 66.08%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79%0.2%2026-08-19 18:50
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 65.72%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.71%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-08-19 18:35