L’École des cotes

Atlético Madrid v Málaga

2026-08-19 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Résultat du match

33 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prévision 71.92%1.39cote équitable
EV -3.63%
Avantage -2.71%
Kelly -10.67%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.34

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.11%71.79%72.17%73.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.211.301.301.3482.64%76.89%76.92%74.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Málaga (Visiteur)

Prévision 10.02%9.98cote équitable
EV +14.20%
Avantage +1.25%
Kelly +1.37%
Croissance +0.194%

avec la cote maximale 11.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.58%10.06%9.90%11.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.759.529.5011.4012.90%10.51%10.53%8.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 18.06%5.54cote équitable
EV +3.86%
Avantage +0.671%
Kelly +0.812%
Croissance +0.031%

avec la cote maximale 5.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.82%18.16%17.92%19.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.605.135.005.7521.74%19.51%20.00%17.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (33 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 73.42%EV -3.63%E -2.71%K -10.67%G +0.000%11.40I 8.77%NM 8.63%EV +14.20%E +1.25%K +1.37%G +0.194%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.95%EV -1.02%E -0.186%K -0.227%G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-22 12:15
Marathon Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 73.43%EV -5.07%E -3.84%K -15.83%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.62%EV +12.70%E +1.13%K +1.24%G +0.157%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.95%EV -2.46%E -0.456%K -0.560%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-22 12:14
Coolbet1.30I 76.92%NM 73.22%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +10.19%E +0.927%K +1.02%G +0.104%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 07:00
betfred_uk1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +10.19%E +0.927%K +1.02%G +0.104%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 00:00
Betr (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +5.18%E +0.494%K +0.546%G +0.028%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 06:59
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.71%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV +0.176%E +0.018%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -4.27%E -0.806%K -0.993%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 14:34
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +0.176%E +0.018%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 12:15
BoyleSports1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -7.22%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV +0.176%E +0.018%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-22 12:15
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.39%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV +0.176%E +0.018%K +0.020%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -13.30%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 12:14
LowVig.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.26%EV -5.07%E -3.84%K -15.83%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.92%EV -2.33%E -0.239%K -0.266%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.82%EV +3.86%E +0.671%K +0.812%G +0.031%3.4%2026-07-22 15:39
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.26%EV -5.07%E -3.84%K -15.83%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.92%EV -2.33%E -0.239%K -0.266%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.82%EV +3.86%E +0.671%K +0.812%G +0.031%3.4%2026-07-22 20:49
Bovada1.30I 76.92%NM 73.01%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.73%EV -2.33%E -0.239%K -0.266%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.26%EV -0.657%E -0.119%K -0.146%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 03:37
BetMGM1.33I 75.19%NM 71.31%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.17%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.73%EV -2.33%E -0.239%K -0.266%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 17:34
Pinnacle1.30I 76.92%NM 72.80%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.81%EV -3.33%E -0.345%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.40%EV -1.74%E -0.320%K -0.392%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 03:40
BetUS1.31I 76.34%NM 72.56%EV -5.78%E -4.42%K -18.66%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.44%EV -1.56%E -0.286%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.12%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 17:35
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 71.12%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 17:35
DraftKings1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-20 15:00
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.22%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.22%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 14:34
Bet Victor1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -7.22%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -14.20%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 16:08
betano_uk1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -7.22%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -14.20%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 16:04
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -10.10%E -8.08%K -40.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -4.83%E -0.509%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-22 14:33
Neds1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.17%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.20%EV -7.34%E -0.793%K -0.889%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.17%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.20%EV -7.34%E -0.793%K -0.889%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.69%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 17:35
FanDuel1.28I 78.13%NM 72.27%EV -7.94%E -6.20%K -28.37%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -9.84%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -4.27%E -0.806%K -0.993%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 14:34
NetBet (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 72.19%EV -12.98%E -10.72%K -61.79%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 9.98%EV -12.35%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.83%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-24 14:45
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -14.85%E -1.75%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -5.17%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 11:19
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -4.35%E -3.27%K -13.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -14.85%E -1.75%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.20%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 14:54
Winamax (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 71.58%EV -7.94%E -6.20%K -28.37%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -19.86%E -2.48%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.97%EV -2.46%E -0.456%K -0.560%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 22:50
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -6.50%E -5.00%K -21.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -19.86%E -2.48%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -11.49%E -2.35%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-24 14:55
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.02%EV -8.66%E -6.82%K -32.08%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.64%EV -22.36%E -2.89%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -6.08%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-24 22:55
Betclic (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 69.11%EV -7.22%E -5.60%K -24.91%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.50%EV -22.36%E -2.89%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.38%EV -16.91%E -3.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-24 14:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.58%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33%3.0%2026-07-25 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.58%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33%3.0%2026-07-25 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.58%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33%3.0%2026-07-25 23:30
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 73.32%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.07%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.61%3.3%2026-07-25 23:30