Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:00 UTC

Final: Athletic Bilbao 1–2 Villarreal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Prediction 46.68%2.14fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.718%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%46.66%46.59%47.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.032.042.1152.36%49.20%48.90%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV -0.488%
Edge -0.128%
Kelly -0.174%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.14%26.16%26.13%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.563.553.8136.36%28.12%28.17%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.21%3.68fair odd
EV +0.662%
Edge +0.179%
Kelly +0.245%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.13%27.18%27.28%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.503.7033.33%28.71%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Bilbao (Local): 46.68%; Villarreal (Visit): 26.12%; Draw: 27.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.662%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.85%EV -3.38%E -1.63%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%EV +0.662%E +0.179%K +0.245%G +0.002%3.1%2026-04-12 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.32%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.02%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.65%EV -0.699%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.56%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -0.699%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.56%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -0.699%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 18:25
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 46.64%EV -1.51%E -0.718%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 26.03%EV -1.27%E -0.337%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-12 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 17:50
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.15%EV -3.85%E -1.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.49%EV -0.488%E -0.128%K -0.174%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.91%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.09%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 17:58
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:00
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:05
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.58%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -2.84%E -0.763%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.37%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 18:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.13%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.750%E -0.197%K -0.268%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.24%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.13%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.750%E -0.197%K -0.268%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.24%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 18:25
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.23%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.03%EV -2.58%E -0.691%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 18:25
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.73%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 18:01
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.73%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.57%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.16%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 18:00
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.57%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.16%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 13:01
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 17:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 08:04
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 08:05
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 18:24
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 09:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 18:25
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.39%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 10:50
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:45
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:45
Bovada🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 18:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.58%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 17:50
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 09:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%EV -7.58%E -3.83%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 17:50
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.50%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 07:54
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -2.06%E -0.548%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 18:04
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 18:00
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 08:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 08:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 08:05
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:01
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -7.58%E -3.83%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 18:05
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 17:50
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 17:50
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -8.98%E -4.61%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 13:00
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 13:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -28.17%E -10.25%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-26 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -10.85%E -5.68%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -18.38%E -6.13%K -9.19%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.92%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25%0.5%2026-04-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-12 18:25
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.47%2.0%2026-04-12 18:01