La escuela de los momios

Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal

Inicio: 2026-04-12 19:00 UTC

Final: Athletic Bilbao 1–2 Villarreal

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Predicción 46.68%2.14momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.718%
Kelly -1.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.67%46.66%46.59%47.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.032.042.1152.36%49.20%48.90%47.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Villarreal (Visitante)

Predicción 26.12%3.83momio equitativo
EV -0.488%
Ventaja -0.128%
Kelly -0.174%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.14%26.16%26.13%31.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.563.553.8136.36%28.12%28.17%26.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.21%3.68momio equitativo
EV +0.662%
Ventaja +0.179%
Kelly +0.245%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.13%27.18%27.28%28.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.483.503.7033.33%28.71%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.85%EV -3.38%E -1.63%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%EV +0.662%E +0.179%K +0.245%G +0.002%3.1%2026-04-12 18:05
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.32%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.02%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.65%EV -0.699%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 18:25
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.56%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -0.699%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 18:25
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 46.56%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -0.699%E -0.191%K -0.264%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 18:25
1xBet2.11I 47.39%NM 46.64%EV -1.51%E -0.718%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 26.03%EV -1.27%E -0.337%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-12 18:05
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.52%EV -4.78%E -2.34%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:05
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 17:50
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -2.06%E -0.572%K -0.792%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 17:50
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 47.15%EV -3.85%E -1.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.49%EV -0.488%E -0.128%K -0.174%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.91%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.09%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 17:58
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:00
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:05
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.42%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 18:25
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.58%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -2.84%E -0.763%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.37%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 18:05
LowVig.ag2.05I 48.78%NM 47.13%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.750%E -0.197%K -0.268%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.24%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 18:25
BetOnline.ag2.05I 48.78%NM 47.13%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.750%E -0.197%K -0.268%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.24%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 18:25
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 46.23%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.03%EV -2.58%E -0.691%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 18:25
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 46.73%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 18:01
BetUS2.05I 48.78%NM 46.73%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 18:24
Codere (IT)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.57%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.16%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 18:00
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.57%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.16%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 13:01
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 17:50
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 08:04
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 08:05
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 18:24
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 15:30
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 09:00
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 18:25
Virgin Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 18:25
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 18:25
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 46.39%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 10:50
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:45
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.91%E -1.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:45
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 18:24
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.58%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 17:50
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 09:00
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%EV -7.58%E -3.83%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 17:50
LeoVegas1.97I 50.76%NM 46.50%EV -8.05%E -4.09%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -6.14%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 18:25
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 07:54
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -2.06%E -0.548%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 18:04
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.36%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 18:00
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 08:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 08:04
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 08:05
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:00
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.65%E -3.32%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:01
NetBet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -7.58%E -3.83%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 18:05
TAB2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 17:50
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -5.72%E -2.83%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 17:50
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -8.98%E -4.61%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.50%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 13:00
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 13:00
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.31%E -2.10%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 13:00
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -1.98%E -0.943%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -28.17%E -10.25%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-26 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -10.85%E -5.68%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -18.38%E -6.13%K -9.19%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.92%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25%0.5%2026-04-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-12 18:25
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-04-12 18:25
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.47%2.0%2026-04-12 18:01