Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.32
assuming max odds 3.70
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Bilbao (Local): 43.02%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 27.48%; Draw: 29.49%. For Celta Vigo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.69%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV +1.69%E +0.457%K +0.626%G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV +1.69%E +0.457%K +0.626%G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV +1.69%E +0.457%K +0.626%G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV +1.69%E +0.457%K +0.626%G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -6.21%E -2.85%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.19%EV +1.42%E +0.384%K +0.526%G +0.007% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.47%EV -3.26%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -6.21%E -2.85%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.19%EV +1.42%E +0.384%K +0.526%G +0.007% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.47%EV -3.26%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -8.36%E -3.93%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.16%EV +0.317%E +0.087%K +0.119%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.02%EV -2.97%E -0.902%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.15%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -1.06%E -0.294%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -7.07%E -3.27%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -1.06%E -0.294%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -7.07%E -3.27%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -1.06%E -0.294%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -7.07%E -3.27%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -1.06%E -0.294%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -7.07%E -3.27%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -1.06%E -0.294%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.50%EV -0.187%E -0.081%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.54%EV -1.61%E -0.449%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.97%EV -2.97%E -0.902%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.4% | 2026-05-17 07:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43%EV -3.63%E -1.62%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.18%EV -1.61%E -0.449%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.39%EV -2.38%E -0.718%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.45%EV -4.49%E -2.02%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.32%EV -2.98%E -0.845%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.23%EV -2.67%E -0.810%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-17 10:31 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.53%EV -1.91%E -0.837%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.26%E -0.925%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.93%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-17 07:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.81%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 08:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -3.81%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 05:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.93%EV -2.67%E -0.810%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 05:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.09%EV -4.92%E -2.23%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.78%E -2.64%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -8.79%E -4.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -8.79%E -4.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -8.79%E -4.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -5.18%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 05:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 02:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -2.67%E -0.810%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 07:56 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 14:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 14:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 07:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 07:51 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.65%E -4.60%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -14.47%E -4.99%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-17 07:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -9.65%E -4.60%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -10.05%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -9.65%E -4.60%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -10.05%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.60%EV -10.51%E -5.05%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.73%EV -10.05%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.60%EV -10.51%E -5.05%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -6.55%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.73%EV -10.05%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.02%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -7.93%E -2.37%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 00:31 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.02%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -7.93%E -2.37%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 00:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.59%EV -6.64%E -3.06%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -7.93%E -2.37%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 05:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -9.65%E -4.60%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -7.93%E -2.37%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 05:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.33%EV -10.94%E -5.29%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -7.93%E -2.37%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 07:26 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +0.277%E +0.082%K +0.116%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 07:56 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 07:56 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-17 00:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 05:06 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -10.68%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.67%E -0.810%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -10.68%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 05:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -12.05%E -3.77%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -2.67%E -0.810%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 07:56 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -12.05%E -3.77%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 07:56 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -9.65%E -4.60%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -14.80%E -4.77%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.30%EV -15.06%E -5.23%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-05-17 07:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 0.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 0.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 0.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 0.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70% | 1.1% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |