Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés v Rayo Vallecano

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 44.77%2.23fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.712%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%44.69%44.76%46.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.102.2750.00%47.17%47.62%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rayo Vallecano (Visit)

Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.358%
Kelly +0.485%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.63%26.73%26.68%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.8031.25%28.71%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.56%3.50fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.424%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.58%28.55%30.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.273.303.4535.71%30.54%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alavés (Local): 44.77%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 26.67%; Draw: 28.56%. For Alavés (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.88%EV +1.62%E +0.712%K +1.27%G +0.021%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.97%EV -7.18%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.14%EV -4.60%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.13%EV -0.174%E -0.078%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%EV -1.46%E -0.424%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.13%EV -0.174%E -0.078%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%EV -1.46%E -0.424%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-23 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.13%EV -0.174%E -0.078%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%EV -1.46%E -0.424%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -1.52%E -0.689%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:48
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -2.41%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -5.31%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.95%EV -2.41%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.68%EV -4.60%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-23 18:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -3.31%E -1.53%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV +0.025%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.47%EV -6.32%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -3.31%E -1.53%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV +0.025%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.47%EV -6.32%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.30%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.63%EV +1.36%E +0.358%K +0.485%G +0.007%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 18:48
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.07%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.26%EV -1.58%E -0.427%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.05%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.46%EV -2.38%E -0.649%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 18:49
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:48
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Bally Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -4.65%E -2.18%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.10%E -2.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -5.31%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:49
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.10%E -2.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -5.31%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Bovada🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.90%EV -5.55%E -2.63%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -2.64%E -0.724%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:48
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.57%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -1.31%E -0.354%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:48
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:39
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 18:49
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 18:49
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:49
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 18:49
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -6.89%E -3.31%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -6.89%E -3.31%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -13.31%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -7.34%E -3.54%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -7.34%E -3.54%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -7.78%E -3.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.31%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.20%EV -10.47%E -5.23%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.81%EV -4.51%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 18:48
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.47%E -5.23%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -10.47%E -5.23%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -14.64%E -4.58%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -20.03%E -7.15%K -11.13%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.32%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.42%-0.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-05-23 18:49