La escuela de los momios

Alavés v Rayo Vallecano

Inicio: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alavés (Local)

Predicción 44.77%2.23momio equitativo
EV +1.62%
Ventaja +0.712%
Kelly +1.27%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.75%44.69%44.76%46.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.102.2750.00%47.17%47.62%44.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rayo Vallecano (Visitante)

Predicción 26.67%3.75momio equitativo
EV +1.36%
Ventaja +0.358%
Kelly +0.485%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.63%26.73%26.68%28.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.483.503.8031.25%28.71%28.57%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.56%3.50momio equitativo
EV -1.46%
Ventaja -0.424%
Kelly -0.597%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.75%28.58%28.55%30.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.273.303.4535.71%30.54%30.30%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 42.88%EV +1.62%E +0.712%K +1.27%G +0.021%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.97%EV -7.18%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.14%EV -4.60%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 44.13%EV -0.174%E -0.078%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%EV -1.46%E -0.424%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 44.13%EV -0.174%E -0.078%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%EV -1.46%E -0.424%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-23 18:49
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 44.13%EV -0.174%E -0.078%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%EV -1.46%E -0.424%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -1.52%E -0.689%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:48
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -2.41%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -5.31%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
BetUS2.18I 45.87%NM 43.95%EV -2.41%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.68%EV -4.60%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-23 18:39
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -3.31%E -1.53%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV +0.025%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.47%EV -6.32%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -3.31%E -1.53%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV +0.025%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.47%EV -6.32%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.30%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.63%EV +1.36%E +0.358%K +0.485%G +0.007%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-23 18:48
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.07%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.26%EV -1.58%E -0.427%K -0.586%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.67%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Marathon Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.05%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.46%EV -2.38%E -0.649%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 18:49
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:48
Casumo2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Grosvenor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Bally Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
betPARX2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:39
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.76%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:39
Codere (IT)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -4.65%E -2.18%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.10%E -2.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -5.31%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:49
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.10%E -2.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -5.31%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Bovada2.11I 47.39%NM 44.90%EV -5.55%E -2.63%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -2.64%E -0.724%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:48
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.57%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -1.31%E -0.354%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.98%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:48
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:39
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 18:49
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 18:49
PlayUp2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:49
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 18:49
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.99%E -2.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:49
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -6.89%E -3.31%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 18:49
PMU (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -6.89%E -3.31%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -13.31%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Virgin Bet2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -7.34%E -3.54%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
LiveScore Bet2.07I 48.31%NM 44.53%EV -7.34%E -3.54%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -7.78%E -3.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.31%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.98%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.23%E -4.02%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.20%EV -10.47%E -5.23%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.81%EV -4.51%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 18:48
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.47%E -5.23%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -10.47%E -5.23%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -14.64%E -4.58%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -20.03%E -7.15%K -11.13%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.32%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.42%-0.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-05-23 18:49