Language:English
Atlético Madrid v Real Sociedad
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlético Madrid (Local)
Prediction 51.91%1.93fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.95%51.84%51.86%53.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.801.801.8558.14%55.54%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Sociedad (Visit)
Prediction 23.08%4.33fair odd
EV +5.50%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.085%
assuming max odds 4.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.19%23.17%23.17%24.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.104.104.5726.67%24.37%24.39%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.00%4.00fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%24.99%24.97%27.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.703.753.9031.25%27.02%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 51.91%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 23.08%; Draw: 25.00%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.20%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.19%EV +5.50%E +1.20%K +1.54%G +0.085% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.61%EV -5.49%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.46%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.46%EV -0.274%E -0.063%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 25.08%EV -3.24%E -0.838%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.44%EV -0.736%E -0.171%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.44%EV -0.736%E -0.171%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.71%EV -6.04%E -3.34%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.736%E -0.171%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 18:57 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -1.89%E -0.445%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -1.89%E -0.445%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -1.89%E -0.445%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -8.11%E -4.58%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -2.49%E -0.639%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -7.59%E -4.27%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.74%E -2.40%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.35%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -5.35%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -7.59%E -4.27%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.23%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.23%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -12.28%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.15%E -5.23%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -12.28%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -13.43%E -3.58%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.95%EV -10.19%E -5.89%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -13.43%E -3.58%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.00%EV -19.99%E -6.25%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.24% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58% | 0.2% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.24% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58% | 0.2% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.85% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |