La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Atlético Madrid v Real Sociedad
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Atlético Madrid (Local)
Predicción 51.91%1.93momio equitativo
EV -3.96%
Ventaja -2.14%
Kelly -4.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.95%51.84%51.86%53.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.721.801.801.8558.14%55.54%55.56%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Real Sociedad (Visitante)
Predicción 23.08%4.33momio equitativo
EV +5.50%
Ventaja +1.20%
Kelly +1.54%
Crecimiento +0.085%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.57
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.19%23.17%23.17%24.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.104.104.5726.67%24.37%24.39%21.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 25.00%4.00momio equitativo
EV -2.49%
Ventaja -0.639%
Kelly -0.859%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.20%24.99%24.97%27.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.703.753.9031.25%27.02%26.67%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (33 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.20%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.19%EV +5.50%E +1.20%K +1.54%G +0.085% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.61%EV -5.49%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.46%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.46%EV -0.274%E -0.063%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 25.08%EV -3.24%E -0.838%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.44%EV -0.736%E -0.171%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.44%EV -0.736%E -0.171%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.71%EV -6.04%E -3.34%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -0.736%E -0.171%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 18:57 |
| Unibet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -1.89%E -0.445%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -1.89%E -0.445%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.26%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -1.89%E -0.445%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -8.11%E -4.58%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -2.49%E -0.639%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| 888sport | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| William Hill | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -7.59%E -4.27%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.04%E -0.725%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.74%E -2.40%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| BetMGM | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.35%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -9.67%E -5.56%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -5.35%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Coral | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.00%E -2.73%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -5.52%E -3.03%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.09%EV -7.59%E -4.27%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.23%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.23%EV -10.71%E -6.23%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.66%E -1.92%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -3.96%E -2.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -12.28%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.15%E -5.23%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -12.28%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 19:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -6.56%E -3.64%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -13.43%E -3.58%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-18 18:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.95%EV -10.19%E -5.89%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -13.43%E -3.58%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.00%EV -19.99%E -6.25%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.24% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58% | 0.2% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.24% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58% | 0.2% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.85% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 19:01 |