The School of Odds
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Al-Shabab v Al-Nassr

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Shabab 2–4 Al-Nassr

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 13.51%7.40fair odd
EV +22.85%
Edge +2.51%
Kelly +2.82%
Growth +0.645%

assuming max odds 9.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.64%13.57%13.41%14.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.387.209.0916.67%13.55%13.89%11.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Nassr (Visit)

Prediction 69.85%1.43fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -4.23%
Kelly -16.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.89%69.77%69.96%74.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.281.281.3582.64%78.09%78.13%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.64%6.01fair odd
EV +7.81%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 6.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.93%16.66%16.64%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.465.506.4822.22%18.31%18.18%15.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 13.51%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 69.85%; Draw: 16.64%. For Al-Shabab (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.40. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯9.09I 11.00%NM 10.64%EV +22.85%E +2.51%K +2.82%G +0.645%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.43%EV -9.20%E -7.07%K -30.65%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.93%EV +7.81%E +1.20%K +1.42%G +0.111%3.4%2026-05-07 17:50
Unibet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +14.87%E +1.75%K +1.98%G +0.295%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +14.87%E +1.75%K +1.98%G +0.295%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +14.87%E +1.75%K +1.98%G +0.295%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 17:10
Grosvenor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +14.87%E +1.75%K +1.98%G +0.295%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +14.87%E +1.75%K +1.98%G +0.295%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +14.87%E +1.75%K +1.98%G +0.295%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV +8.11%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.094%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.49%EV -12.69%E -10.15%K -50.76%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.18%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-07 17:15
LeoVegas🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV +8.11%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.094%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.49%EV -12.69%E -10.15%K -50.76%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.18%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-07 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV +8.11%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.094%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.38%EV -14.09%E -11.45%K -61.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -10.16%E -1.88%K -2.31%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV +8.11%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.094%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.38%EV -14.09%E -11.45%K -61.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -10.16%E -1.88%K -2.31%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.00%EV +8.11%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.094%1.21I 82.64%NM 72.71%EV -15.48%E -12.80%K -73.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -10.16%E -1.88%K -2.31%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-07 17:09
SportsBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV +1.36%E +0.181%K +0.209%G +0.003%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.26%EV -10.59%E -8.28%K -37.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -8.50%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 17:35
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV +1.36%E +0.181%K +0.209%G +0.003%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -12.69%E -10.15%K -50.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-07 17:35
Pinnacle🎯7.32I 13.66%NM 12.89%EV -1.08%E -0.147%K -0.170%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.97%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.52%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.14%EV -2.68%E -0.457%K -0.552%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.74%EV -2.70%E -0.375%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.58%EV -9.20%E -7.07%K -30.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -8.50%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-07 17:30
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -5.40%E -0.771%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -9.20%E -7.07%K -30.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.50%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-07 17:09
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -5.40%E -0.771%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-07 17:35
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -5.40%E -0.771%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-07 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -5.40%E -0.771%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-07 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -5.40%E -0.771%K -0.900%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-07 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -8.78%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.35%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-07 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -12.16%E -1.87%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -5.70%E -4.23%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -0.180%E -0.030%K -0.036%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 17:50
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -12.16%E -1.87%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -5.70%E -4.23%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -0.180%E -0.030%K -0.036%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -12.16%E -1.87%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -8.50%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -12.16%E -1.87%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.75%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -0.180%E -0.030%K -0.036%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 17:40
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -12.16%E -1.87%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -9.20%E -7.07%K -30.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.08%EV -12.16%E -1.87%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 68.02%EV -12.69%E -10.15%K -50.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.90%EV -25.13%E -5.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%17.6%2026-05-07 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.37%EV -15.54%E -2.49%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.15%EV -10.59%E -8.28%K -37.83%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -3.51%E -0.605%K -0.731%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-07 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 14.01%EV -16.21%E -2.61%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 68.95%EV -11.99%E -9.52%K -46.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.04%EV -15.15%E -2.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-07 17:39
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.60%EV -18.91%E -3.15%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 67.89%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.52%EV -16.82%E -3.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-07 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.79%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-05-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.79%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-05-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.79%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-05-07 17:50
Smarkets◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.19%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%1.6%2026-05-07 17:50
Kalshi◎8.33I 12.00%NM 11.75%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.58%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.67%2.2%2026-05-07 17:50