The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Nassr v Neom

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 74.09%1.35fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -12.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.09%74.35%73.82%77.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.241.231.3085.47%80.73%81.30%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Neom (Visit)

Prediction 10.25%9.76fair odd
EV +5.88%
Edge +0.569%
Kelly +0.630%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 10.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.66%10.27%10.40%11.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.728.5010.3313.33%11.47%11.76%9.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.66%6.39fair odd
EV +9.63%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.154%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.49%15.38%15.79%17.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.715.507.0020.00%17.50%18.18%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 74.09%; Neom (Visit): 10.25%; Draw: 15.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.39. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.38%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%10.33I 9.68%NM 9.14%EV +5.88%E +0.569%K +0.630%G +0.037%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.49%EV +9.63%E +1.38%K +1.60%G +0.154%5.9%2026-03-07 18:50
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.74%EV -3.68%E -2.83%K -12.28%G +0.000%8.98I 11.14%NM 10.82%EV -7.96%E -0.886%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.73I 14.86%NM 14.44%EV +5.40%E +0.802%K +0.942%G +0.051%2.9%2026-03-07 18:54
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -12.57%E -10.66%K -69.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV +2.50%E +0.250%K +0.277%G +0.007%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV +1.80%E +0.276%K +0.327%G +0.006%10.1%2026-03-07 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.74%EV -13.32%E -11.38%K -78.32%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -2.63%E -0.277%K -0.309%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV +1.80%E +0.276%K +0.327%G +0.006%11.4%2026-03-07 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.46%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -2.63%E -0.277%K -0.309%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.85%EV -2.90%E -0.468%K -0.558%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 17:05
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -2.63%E -0.277%K -0.309%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -6.03%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 18:49
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -11.09%E -9.24%K -55.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -6.03%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-07 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.09%EV -7.39%E -5.91%K -29.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -18.00%E -2.25%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.49%EV -7.60%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.27%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV -7.75%E -0.862%K -0.969%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -9.95%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 18:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.42%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.75%E -0.862%K -0.969%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -9.95%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.83%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -10.32%E -1.18%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -9.95%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.75%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.55%EV -20.57%E -2.65%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -10.73%E -1.88%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-07 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.65%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.45%EV -11.85%E -1.38%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 15.90%EV -11.52%E -2.04%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 18:55
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:04
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 16:00
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.57%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -15.43%E -2.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-06 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.57%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -15.43%E -2.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-06 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.04%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -18.00%E -2.25%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.88%EV -17.78%E -3.39%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-06 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.04%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -18.00%E -2.25%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.88%EV -17.78%E -3.39%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-06 15:31
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.56%EV -23.13%E -3.08%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.35%EV -21.70%E -4.34%K -5.42%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-07 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -13.32%E -11.38%K -78.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV +2.50%E +0.250%K +0.277%G +0.007%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -21.70%E -4.34%K -5.42%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-07 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 79.19%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13%0.2%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 79.19%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13%0.2%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 79.19%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13%0.2%2026-03-07 18:54
Smarkets◎1.24I 80.65%NM 79.22%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.92%1.8%2026-03-07 18:55
Kalshi◎1.25I 80.00%NM 77.66%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.74%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60%3.0%2026-03-07 18:45