La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Al-Nassr v Neom
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Nassr (Local)
Predicción 74.09%1.35momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -2.83%
Kelly -12.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.09%74.35%73.82%77.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.171.241.231.3085.47%80.73%81.30%76.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Neom (Visitante)
Predicción 10.25%9.76momio equitativo
EV +5.88%
Ventaja +0.569%
Kelly +0.630%
Crecimiento +0.037%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.33
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.66%10.27%10.40%11.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.508.728.5010.3313.33%11.47%11.76%9.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 15.66%6.39momio equitativo
EV +9.63%
Ventaja +1.38%
Kelly +1.60%
Crecimiento +0.154%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.49%15.38%15.79%17.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.715.507.0020.00%17.50%18.18%14.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (29 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.38%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 10.33I 9.68%NM 9.14%EV +5.88%E +0.569%K +0.630%G +0.037% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.49%EV +9.63%E +1.38%K +1.60%G +0.154% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 18:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.74%EV -3.68%E -2.83%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 8.98I 11.14%NM 10.82%EV -7.96%E -0.886%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.44%EV +5.40%E +0.802%K +0.942%G +0.051% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 18:54 |
| SportsBet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -12.57%E -10.66%K -69.86%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV +2.50%E +0.250%K +0.277%G +0.007% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV +1.80%E +0.276%K +0.327%G +0.006% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 18:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.74%EV -13.32%E -11.38%K -78.32%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -2.63%E -0.277%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV +1.80%E +0.276%K +0.327%G +0.006% | 11.4% | 2026-03-07 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.46%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -2.63%E -0.277%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.85%EV -2.90%E -0.468%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 17:05 |
| Coral | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -2.63%E -0.277%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -6.03%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:49 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -11.09%E -9.24%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -6.03%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-03-07 17:44 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.09%EV -7.39%E -5.91%K -29.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -18.00%E -2.25%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.49%EV -7.60%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-07 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.27%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV -7.75%E -0.862%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -9.95%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 18:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.42%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.75%E -0.862%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -9.95%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 16:50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.83%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -10.32%E -1.18%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -9.95%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.75%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.55%EV -20.57%E -2.65%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -10.73%E -1.88%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-07 16:49 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.65%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.45%EV -11.85%E -1.38%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 15.90%EV -11.52%E -2.04%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 18:55 |
| Unibet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 18:04 |
| Grosvenor | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 18:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 18:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 18:04 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 18:04 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -5.91%E -4.65%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 18:04 |
| 888sport | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 16:00 |
| William Hill | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 16:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 16:00 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.87%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 16:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.57%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -15.43%E -2.86%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 15:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.57%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -12.88%E -1.52%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -15.43%E -2.86%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.04%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -18.00%E -2.25%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.88%EV -17.78%E -3.39%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-06 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.04%EV -8.87%E -7.21%K -38.56%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -18.00%E -2.25%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.88%EV -17.78%E -3.39%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-06 15:31 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -9.61%E -7.88%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.56%EV -23.13%E -3.08%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.35%EV -21.70%E -4.34%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-03-07 17:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -13.32%E -11.38%K -78.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV +2.50%E +0.250%K +0.277%G +0.007% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -21.70%E -4.34%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-03-07 18:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.19% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13% | 0.2% | 2026-03-07 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.19% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13% | 0.2% | 2026-03-07 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.19% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.68% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.13% | 0.2% | 2026-03-07 18:54 |
| Smarkets | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.92% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 18:55 |
| Kalshi | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.66% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.74% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60% | 3.0% | 2026-03-07 18:45 |