The School of Odds
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Al-Ittihad v Al-Nassr

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Ittihad 2–1 Al-Nassr

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ittihad (Local)

Prediction 19.24%5.20fair odd
EV +9.66%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.05%
Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.12%18.85%19.35%21.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.884.965.7025.00%20.50%20.16%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Nassr (Visit)

Prediction 60.39%1.66fair odd
EV -6.40%
Edge -4.13%
Kelly -11.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.72%60.57%60.44%62.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.481.501.5572.46%67.48%66.89%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.38%4.91fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -0.856%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.66%20.58%20.21%22.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.384.404.7125.00%22.85%22.73%21.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 19.24%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 60.39%; Draw: 20.38%. For Al-Ittihad (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV +9.66%E +1.69%K +2.05%G +0.198%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 17:15
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV +0.999%E +0.190%K +0.235%G +0.002%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.27%EV -6.40%E -4.13%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:45
SportsBet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.45%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 12:50
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 07:44
Unibet (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 07:45
Unibet (NL)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 07:44
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 07:44
ATG (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 07:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -6.40%E -4.13%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.18%EV -8.21%E -5.40%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 12:50
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 12:50
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.93%EV -13.65%E -9.54%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -11.36%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 20:15
1xBet🎯4.92I 20.33%NM 18.96%EV -5.35%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.58%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.46%EV -7.09%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -5.73%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.73%EV -14.25%E -10.04%K -33.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 20:15
Virgin Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -5.73%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.73%EV -14.25%E -10.04%K -33.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 20:15
PMU (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 17.79%EV -7.66%E -1.60%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 61.88%EV -16.67%E -12.08%K -43.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.33%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-03 20:15
Pinnacle🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.72%EV -7.61%E -4.97%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 19.72%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 07:20
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-03 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.63%EV -9.58%E -2.04%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.24%EV -13.65%E -9.54%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.13%EV -11.36%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 18:09
Betclic (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -8.21%E -5.40%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 09:08
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.69%EV -10.02%E -6.73%K -20.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 17:10
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 12:50
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 12:50
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.86%EV -15.35%E -3.49%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.27%EV -12.44%E -8.58%K -27.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.86%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-03 17:10
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.14%EV -23.05%E -5.76%K -7.68%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 58.72%EV -13.04%E -9.06%K -29.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.13%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000%18.3%2026-09-03 07:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.97%1.61I 62.11%NM 62.05%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.98%0.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%5.0%2026-09-04 07:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%5.0%2026-09-04 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%5.0%2026-09-04 06:25
Smarkets◎4.90I 20.41%NM 18.83%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.11%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%8.4%2026-09-04 10:55