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Al-Ittihad v Al-Nassr
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Ittihad (Local)
Predicción 19.24%5.20momio equitativo
EV +9.66%
Ventaja +1.69%
Kelly +2.05%
Crecimiento +0.198%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.12%18.85%19.35%21.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.884.965.7025.00%20.50%20.16%17.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Al-Nassr (Visitante)
Predicción 60.39%1.66momio equitativo
EV -6.40%
Ventaja -4.13%
Kelly -11.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.72%60.57%60.44%62.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.481.501.5572.46%67.48%66.89%64.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 20.38%4.91momio equitativo
EV -4.03%
Ventaja -0.856%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.71
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.66%20.58%20.21%22.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.384.404.7125.00%22.85%22.73%21.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Al-Ittihad (Local): 19.24%; Al-Nassr (Visitante): 60.39%; Empate: 20.38%. Para Al-Ittihad (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.20. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.66%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV +9.66%E +1.69%K +2.05%G +0.198% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-02 17:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV +0.999%E +0.190%K +0.235%G +0.002% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.27%EV -6.40%E -4.13%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 12:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.45%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -1.89%E -0.370%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.64%EV -11.23%E -7.64%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -6.40%E -4.13%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 12:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.18%EV -8.21%E -5.40%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -3.81%E -0.762%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.93%EV -13.65%E -9.54%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -11.36%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-03 20:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.92I 20.33%NM 18.96%EV -5.35%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.58%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.56I 21.93%NM 20.46%EV -7.09%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -5.73%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.73%EV -14.25%E -10.04%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-03 20:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -5.73%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.73%EV -14.25%E -10.04%K -33.93%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-03 20:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 17.79%EV -7.66%E -1.60%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 61.88%EV -16.67%E -12.08%K -43.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.33%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-09-03 20:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.72%EV -7.61%E -4.97%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.72%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 07:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.63%EV -9.58%E -2.04%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.24%EV -13.65%E -9.54%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.13%EV -11.36%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-03 18:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -8.21%E -5.40%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 09:08 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.69%EV -10.02%E -6.73%K -20.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.51%E -2.50%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -18.50%E -4.62%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.86%EV -15.35%E -3.49%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.27%EV -12.44%E -8.58%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.86%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.14%EV -23.05%E -5.76%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 58.72%EV -13.04%E -9.06%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.13%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 18.3% | 2026-09-03 07:19 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.97% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 62.05% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.98% | 0.1% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 06:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 06:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.83% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.11% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 10:55 |