Language:English
Al-Hilal v Neom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Hilal (Local)
Prediction 74.03%1.35fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -12.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.23%74.01%74.00%77.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.211.3086.96%82.51%82.64%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Neom (Visit)
Prediction 10.50%9.53fair odd
EV +15.47%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.239%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.41%10.54%10.76%11.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.599.8011.0013.33%10.43%10.20%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.47%6.46fair odd
EV +10.76%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +1.75%
Growth +0.188%
assuming max odds 7.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.49%15.44%15.24%17.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.016.007.1620.00%16.64%16.67%13.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 74.03%; Neom (Visit): 10.50%; Draw: 15.47%. For Neom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.53. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.85%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.85%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.89%EV -14.12%E -12.17%K -88.26%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -5.64%E -0.924%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.89%EV -14.12%E -12.17%K -88.26%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -5.64%E -0.924%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV +4.97%E +0.497%K +0.553%G +0.027% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.53%EV -14.86%E -12.92%K -99.08%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV +4.97%E +0.497%K +0.553%G +0.027% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -13.38%E -11.44%K -78.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV +4.97%E +0.497%K +0.553%G +0.027% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -22.65%E -4.53%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.69%EV -6.72%E -5.33%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 9.84I 10.16%NM 9.82%EV +3.30%E +0.335%K +0.373%G +0.012% | 7.16I 13.97%NM 13.49%EV +10.76%E +1.50%K +1.75%G +0.188% | 3.5% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.95%EV -8.20%E -6.61%K -34.16%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.61%EV +2.88%E +0.293%K +0.327%G +0.009% | 6.52I 15.34%NM 14.44%EV +0.861%E +0.132%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.46%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -0.274%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.85%EV -4.09%E -0.660%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.46%E -5.97%K -29.83%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 16:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -11.05%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.01%EV -3.76%E -2.89%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.98%EV -5.98%E -4.71%K -22.14%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -11.05%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.09%EV -8.94%E -7.27%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.85%EV -10.42%E -8.61%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.49%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.28%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.04%EV -14.97%E -1.85%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.68%EV -11.82%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -3.76%E -2.89%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -16.02%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.73%EV -10.42%E -8.61%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -16.02%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.12%EV -8.73%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -21.27%E -2.84%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.14% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.39% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.47% | 0.3% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.54% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.01% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.66% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.74% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60% | 3.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |