La escuela de los momiosAl-Hilal v Neom
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Hilal (Local)
Predicción 74.03%1.35momio equitativo
EV -3.76%
Ventaja -2.89%
Kelly -12.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.23%74.01%74.00%77.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.151.211.211.3086.96%82.51%82.64%76.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Neom (Visitante)
Predicción 10.50%9.53momio equitativo
EV +15.47%
Ventaja +1.41%
Kelly +1.55%
Crecimiento +0.239%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.41%10.54%10.76%11.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.509.599.8011.0013.33%10.43%10.20%9.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 15.47%6.46momio equitativo
EV +10.76%
Ventaja +1.50%
Kelly +1.75%
Crecimiento +0.188%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.16
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.49%15.44%15.24%17.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.006.016.007.1620.00%16.64%16.67%13.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Grosvenor | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.13%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +15.47%E +1.41%K +1.55%G +0.239% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -0.995%E -0.156%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.85%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| LeoVegas | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.85%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.89%EV -14.12%E -12.17%K -88.26%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -5.64%E -0.924%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.89%EV -14.12%E -12.17%K -88.26%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV +10.22%E +0.974%K +1.08%G +0.110% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -5.64%E -0.924%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -12.64%E -10.71%K -70.23%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV +4.97%E +0.497%K +0.553%G +0.027% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.53%EV -14.86%E -12.92%K -99.08%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV +4.97%E +0.497%K +0.553%G +0.027% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -13.38%E -11.44%K -78.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV +4.97%E +0.497%K +0.553%G +0.027% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -22.65%E -4.53%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| 1xBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.69%EV -6.72%E -5.33%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 9.84I 10.16%NM 9.82%EV +3.30%E +0.335%K +0.373%G +0.012% | 7.16I 13.97%NM 13.49%EV +10.76%E +1.50%K +1.75%G +0.188% | 3.5% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.95%EV -8.20%E -6.61%K -34.16%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.61%EV +2.88%E +0.293%K +0.327%G +0.009% | 6.52I 15.34%NM 14.44%EV +0.861%E +0.132%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.46%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -0.274%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.85%EV -4.09%E -0.660%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| betfred_uk | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.46%E -5.97%K -29.83%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| 888sport | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| William Hill | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 16:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 15:59 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -11.16%E -9.30%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -5.52%E -0.614%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -11.05%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.01%EV -3.76%E -2.89%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.98%EV -5.98%E -4.71%K -22.14%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -11.05%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.09%EV -8.94%E -7.27%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.85%EV -10.42%E -8.61%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -10.77%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.49%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.28%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.04%EV -14.97%E -1.85%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.68%EV -11.82%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 16:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -3.76%E -2.89%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -16.02%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.18%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.73%EV -10.42%E -8.61%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -16.02%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.12%EV -8.73%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -9.68%E -7.93%K -44.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -21.27%E -2.84%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.14% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.39% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.47% | 0.3% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Smarkets | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.54% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.01% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Kalshi | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.66% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.74% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60% | 3.0% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |