Language:English
Al-Hazem v Al-Hilal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Hazem (Local)
Prediction 8.44%11.85fair odd
EV +20.73%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.323%
assuming max odds 14.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.78%8.47%8.43%10.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5011.2311.5014.3011.76%8.91%8.70%6.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Hilal (Visit)
Prediction 78.59%1.27fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -18.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.05%78.64%78.50%81.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.161.2290.09%86.14%86.21%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.96%7.71fair odd
EV +16.68%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.09%
Growth +0.348%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.52%12.88%13.07%15.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.957.009.0018.18%14.39%14.29%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 8.44%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 78.59%; Draw: 12.96%. For Al-Hazem (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.85. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 12.01I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV +1.39%E +0.116%K +0.126%G +0.002% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.60%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV +16.68%E +1.85%K +2.09%G +0.348% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +1.31%E +0.109%K +0.119%G +0.002% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.94%EV -11.19%E -9.90%K -86.08%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.43%EV +3.72%E +0.465%K +0.531%G +0.020% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 14.30I 6.99%NM 6.78%EV +20.73%E +1.45%K +1.56%G +0.323% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.82%EV -5.69%E -4.74%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 7.82I 12.79%NM 12.40%EV +1.38%E +0.177%K +0.203%G +0.003% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV +1.31%E +0.109%K +0.119%G +0.002% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.57%EV -10.40%E -9.13%K -74.31%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.78%EV +1.13%E +0.144%K +0.165%G +0.002% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.84%EV -4.12%E -3.37%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV -2.76%E -0.369%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.84%EV -4.12%E -3.37%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV -2.76%E -0.369%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV +1.31%E +0.109%K +0.119%G +0.002% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.47%EV -11.98%E -10.69%K -99.80%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -2.76%E -0.369%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 17:58 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 17:58 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -7.26%E -6.15%K -40.34%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -8.05%E -6.88%K -47.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -8.05%E -6.88%K -47.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 17:58 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -8.05%E -6.88%K -47.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.87%EV -8.05%E -6.88%K -47.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.47%EV -9.24%E -0.860%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.52%EV -8.83%E -7.61%K -55.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.01%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 17:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -15.58%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.32%EV -10.40%E -9.13%K -74.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -10.40%E -9.13%K -74.31%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -12.49%E -1.85%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV +5.53%E +0.442%K +0.481%G +0.027% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -10.40%E -9.13%K -74.31%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -12.49%E -1.85%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV +1.31%E +0.109%K +0.119%G +0.002% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.41%EV -11.98%E -10.69%K -99.80%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -12.49%E -1.85%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.99%EV -2.91%E -0.253%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.87%EV -7.26%E -6.15%K -40.34%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -15.73%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -7.13%E -0.649%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -7.26%E -6.15%K -40.34%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -15.73%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.69%EV -11.36%E -1.08%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.28%EV -7.26%E -6.15%K -40.34%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -15.73%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.32%EV +1.31%E +0.109%K +0.119%G +0.002% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.16%EV -12.76%E -11.50%K -116.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.52%EV -15.73%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.64%EV -24.02%E -2.67%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 76.13%EV -10.40%E -9.13%K -74.31%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.23%EV -20.91%E -3.43%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-02 17:58 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -19.80%E -2.08%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.71%EV -7.26%E -6.15%K -40.34%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -22.21%E -3.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 7.91%EV -7.13%E -0.649%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 76.28%EV -10.40%E -9.13%K -74.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.81%EV -28.69%E -5.22%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.19%EV -28.24%E -3.32%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.05%EV -8.05%E -6.88%K -47.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -28.69%E -5.22%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.43% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87% | 1.3% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.56% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.73% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.70% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.73% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.67% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.60% | 2.5% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |