The School of Odds
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Al-Fayha v Al-Nassr

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 9.29%10.77fair odd
EV +11.45%
Edge +0.954%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.119%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.08%9.36%9.27%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.2410.0012.0011.76%9.77%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Nassr (Visit)

Prediction 74.73%1.34fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -15.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.86%74.63%74.60%76.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.211.201.2887.72%82.81%83.33%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.98%6.26fair odd
EV +3.05%
Edge +0.473%
Kelly +0.560%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 6.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.63%16.02%16.13%17.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.765.806.4520.00%17.37%17.24%15.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 9.29%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 74.73%; Draw: 15.98%. For Al-Fayha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.77. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09%EV +11.45%E +0.954%K +1.04%G +0.119%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.45%EV -5.09%E -4.01%K -18.84%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.46%EV +0.338%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 18:50
Unibet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -2.54%E -0.416%K -0.498%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -2.54%E -0.416%K -0.498%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:20
Grosvenor🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -2.54%E -0.416%K -0.498%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -2.54%E -0.416%K -0.498%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -2.54%E -0.416%K -0.498%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -2.54%E -0.416%K -0.498%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:19
LeoVegas🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -11.07%E -9.30%K -58.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -4.14%E -0.689%K -0.827%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -11.07%E -9.30%K -58.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -4.14%E -0.689%K -0.827%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 18:19
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.81%E -10.01%K -65.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -4.14%E -0.689%K -0.827%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-28 18:39
Paddy Power🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.81%E -10.01%K -65.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -4.14%E -0.689%K -0.827%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-28 18:38
LiveScore Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.16I 86.21%NM 76.60%EV -13.31%E -11.47%K -83.17%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -7.33%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV +2.17%E +0.197%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.16I 86.21%NM 76.60%EV -13.31%E -11.47%K -83.17%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -7.33%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:20
Pinnacle🎯10.92I 9.16%NM 8.64%EV +1.42%E +0.130%K +0.143%G +0.002%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.73%EV -8.08%E -6.57%K -35.11%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.63%EV +3.05%E +0.473%K +0.560%G +0.017%6.0%2026-02-28 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -7.12%E -0.712%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -8.08%E -6.57%K -35.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -8.13%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.12%E -0.712%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -6.58%E -5.27%K -26.33%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -15.32%E -2.89%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 06:19
Betclic (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.72%EV -7.12%E -0.712%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 76.50%EV -14.80%E -12.98%K -105.73%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.78%EV -5.73%E -0.972%K -1.17%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-28 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -7.12%E -0.712%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -12.56%E -10.74%K -73.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -20.11%E -4.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-28 18:54
Coral🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -11.77%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.34%E -3.39%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -8.13%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 18:29
Sky Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -11.77%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.91%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.13%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 18:40
888sport🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.77%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -8.82%E -7.23%K -40.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -20.11%E -4.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:50
William Hill🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.77%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -8.82%E -7.23%K -40.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -20.11%E -4.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.77%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -8.82%E -7.23%K -40.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -20.11%E -4.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.77%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -8.82%E -7.23%K -40.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -20.11%E -4.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯9.45I 10.58%NM 9.45%EV -12.23%E -1.29%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.45%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.10%EV -11.33%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV -16.41%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.27%EV -4.34%E -3.39%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -8.13%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -16.41%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.82%E -7.23%K -40.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -4.14%E -0.689%K -0.827%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 18:49
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -16.41%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.32%E -8.60%K -51.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.12%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-28 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -21.05%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -9.57%E -7.91%K -45.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -7.33%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-28 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.09%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.74%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-02-28 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.09%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.74%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-02-28 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.09%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.74%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-02-28 18:55
Smarkets◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.34%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.40%2.1%2026-02-28 18:54